NBER Approach in Measuring Business Cycle Discussion

Description

2 attachmentsSlide 1 of 2attachment_1attachment_1attachment_2attachment_2.slider-slide > img { width: 100%; display: block; }
.slider-slide > img:focus { margin: auto; }

Unformatted Attachment Preview

Instructions:
The media often refers to two consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP as a
recession. Sometimes this is called a technical recession.
The NBER approach defines business cycle recessions relying on a broad range of
coincident indicators rather than a single indicator like real GDP.
For this assignment, you will determine the number of consecutive declines in real
GDP and in the coincident economic index and compare your findings to the business
cycle chronology maintained by the NBER.
1.
Find the business cycle chronology at nber.org and read about how it is
determined by the business cycle dating committee (submit the URL you found)
2.
What are the four components of The Conference Board Coincident
Economic Index? Why are these components called coincident indicators?
3.
Download the data (attached as excel file) for the coincident index from The
Conference Board (CEI, in levels, 2016 = 100) and real GDP (from BEA.gov or
FRED or any of your favorite source) in levels.
One definition of a recession commonly used in the media and by some economists is
that two consecutive declines in real GDP determines when the economy is in
recession. Sometimes this is called a technical recession. Identify such periods in real
GDP. Also, identify periods in where the coincident index declines for two quarters or
more (that is, in months 6 months or more).
How do they compare? Show each in a graph with the periods of decline marked (two
separate graphs). How do they compare to the NBER Business Cycle Dating
Committee’s chronology for the U.S. economy?
Date
1959-01
1959-02
1959-03
1959-04
1959-05
1959-06
1959-07
1959-08
1959-09
1959-10
1959-11
1959-12
1960-01
1960-02
1960-03
1960-04
1960-05
1960-06
1960-07
1960-08
1960-09
1960-10
1960-11
1960-12
1961-01
1961-02
1961-03
1961-04
1961-05
1961-06
1961-07
1961-08
1961-09
1961-10
1961-11
1961-12
Business Cycle Indicators
Coincident and Lagging Indicators: Composite index of 4 coincident indicators (2016=100)
Index 2016=100
United States
Monthly
G0M920
The Conference Board
27.0
27.2
27.4
27.7
27.9
27.9
27.9
27.5
27.5
27.5
27.6
28.1
28.4
28.4
28.3
28.4
28.2
28.2
28.1
28.1
28.1
28.1
27.9
27.7
27.7
27.6
27.8
27.9
28.0
28.3
28.3
28.5
28.6
28.8
29.0
29.1
1962-01
1962-02
1962-03
1962-04
1962-05
1962-06
1962-07
1962-08
1962-09
1962-10
1962-11
1962-12
1963-01
1963-02
1963-03
1963-04
1963-05
1963-06
1963-07
1963-08
1963-09
1963-10
1963-11
1963-12
1964-01
1964-02
1964-03
1964-04
1964-05
1964-06
1964-07
1964-08
1964-09
1964-10
1964-11
1964-12
1965-01
1965-02
1965-03
1965-04
1965-05
1965-06
1965-07
29.1
29.3
29.4
29.6
29.6
29.6
29.7
29.7
29.8
29.9
30.0
29.9
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.4
30.5
30.6
30.7
30.7
30.8
31.0
31.0
31.1
31.3
31.4
31.5
31.7
31.8
31.9
32.0
32.2
32.3
32.2
32.5
32.8
33.0
33.1
33.3
33.5
33.6
33.7
33.9
1965-08
1965-09
1965-10
1965-11
1965-12
1966-01
1966-02
1966-03
1966-04
1966-05
1966-06
1966-07
1966-08
1966-09
1966-10
1966-11
1966-12
1967-01
1967-02
1967-03
1967-04
1967-05
1967-06
1967-07
1967-08
1967-09
1967-10
1967-11
1967-12
1968-01
1968-02
1968-03
1968-04
1968-05
1968-06
1968-07
1968-08
1968-09
1968-10
1968-11
1968-12
1969-01
1969-02
34.1
34.1
34.5
34.7
34.9
35.1
35.2
35.5
35.6
35.7
35.9
36.0
36.1
36.2
36.4
36.4
36.5
36.6
36.6
36.6
36.7
36.7
36.8
36.8
37.1
37.1
37.1
37.5
37.8
37.7
37.9
38.0
38.1
38.3
38.5
38.6
38.6
38.8
39.0
39.2
39.3
39.4
39.5
1969-03
1969-04
1969-05
1969-06
1969-07
1969-08
1969-09
1969-10
1969-11
1969-12
1970-01
1970-02
1970-03
1970-04
1970-05
1970-06
1970-07
1970-08
1970-09
1970-10
1970-11
1970-12
1971-01
1971-02
1971-03
1971-04
1971-05
1971-06
1971-07
1971-08
1971-09
1971-10
1971-11
1971-12
1972-01
1972-02
1972-03
1972-04
1972-05
1972-06
1972-07
1972-08
1972-09
39.7
39.8
39.8
40.0
40.1
40.3
40.3
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.2
40.3
40.3
40.2
40.2
40.2
40.2
40.2
40.1
39.8
39.6
40.0
40.2
40.2
40.3
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.6
40.7
40.9
41.0
41.2
41.5
41.8
41.9
42.2
42.4
42.6
42.7
42.7
43.2
43.4
1972-10
1972-11
1972-12
1973-01
1973-02
1973-03
1973-04
1973-05
1973-06
1973-07
1973-08
1973-09
1973-10
1973-11
1973-12
1974-01
1974-02
1974-03
1974-04
1974-05
1974-06
1974-07
1974-08
1974-09
1974-10
1974-11
1974-12
1975-01
1975-02
1975-03
1975-04
1975-05
1975-06
1975-07
1975-08
1975-09
1975-10
1975-11
1975-12
1976-01
1976-02
1976-03
1976-04
43.8
44.1
44.4
44.6
44.9
44.9
45.0
45.1
45.2
45.3
45.3
45.5
45.8
46.1
46.0
45.9
45.8
45.8
45.7
45.8
45.8
45.8
45.7
45.6
45.5
45.1
44.4
44.2
43.9
43.6
43.5
43.6
43.7
43.9
44.2
44.3
44.5
44.6
44.8
45.2
45.5
45.6
45.8
1976-05
1976-06
1976-07
1976-08
1976-09
1976-10
1976-11
1976-12
1977-01
1977-02
1977-03
1977-04
1977-05
1977-06
1977-07
1977-08
1977-09
1977-10
1977-11
1977-12
1978-01
1978-02
1978-03
1978-04
1978-05
1978-06
1978-07
1978-08
1978-09
1978-10
1978-11
1978-12
1979-01
1979-02
1979-03
1979-04
1979-05
1979-06
1979-07
1979-08
1979-09
1979-10
1979-11
45.9
46.0
46.1
46.3
46.4
46.3
46.7
47.0
47.0
47.3
47.6
47.8
48.0
48.3
48.5
48.6
48.8
49.1
49.3
49.5
49.3
49.6
50.0
50.6
50.8
51.1
51.1
51.3
51.4
51.7
51.9
52.1
52.1
52.2
52.6
52.2
52.5
52.6
52.6
52.6
52.6
52.7
52.7
1979-12
1980-01
1980-02
1980-03
1980-04
1980-05
1980-06
1980-07
1980-08
1980-09
1980-10
1980-11
1980-12
1981-01
1981-02
1981-03
1981-04
1981-05
1981-06
1981-07
1981-08
1981-09
1981-10
1981-11
1981-12
1982-01
1982-02
1982-03
1982-04
1982-05
1982-06
1982-07
1982-08
1982-09
1982-10
1982-11
1982-12
1983-01
1983-02
1983-03
1983-04
1983-05
1983-06
52.8
52.9
52.8
52.6
52.3
51.8
51.6
51.5
51.7
52.0
52.5
52.7
52.9
52.9
52.8
52.9
52.9
52.9
53.0
53.3
53.3
53.2
52.9
52.8
52.5
52.2
52.5
52.4
52.3
52.3
52.0
51.8
51.7
51.6
51.4
51.3
51.3
51.6
51.5
51.8
52.0
52.3
52.6
1983-07
1983-08
1983-09
1983-10
1983-11
1983-12
1984-01
1984-02
1984-03
1984-04
1984-05
1984-06
1984-07
1984-08
1984-09
1984-10
1984-11
1984-12
1985-01
1985-02
1985-03
1985-04
1985-05
1985-06
1985-07
1985-08
1985-09
1985-10
1985-11
1985-12
1986-01
1986-02
1986-03
1986-04
1986-05
1986-06
1986-07
1986-08
1986-09
1986-10
1986-11
1986-12
1987-01
52.9
52.9
53.5
53.9
54.2
54.5
54.9
55.2
55.4
55.7
55.9
56.2
56.3
56.5
56.7
56.7
57.0
57.1
57.1
57.2
57.5
57.5
57.7
57.7
57.7
57.9
58.1
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.6
58.6
58.7
59.0
59.0
58.9
59.2
59.3
59.6
59.6
59.7
60.0
59.8
1987-02
1987-03
1987-04
1987-05
1987-06
1987-07
1987-08
1987-09
1987-10
1987-11
1987-12
1988-01
1988-02
1988-03
1988-04
1988-05
1988-06
1988-07
1988-08
1988-09
1988-10
1988-11
1988-12
1989-01
1989-02
1989-03
1989-04
1989-05
1989-06
1989-07
1989-08
1989-09
1989-10
1989-11
1989-12
1990-01
1990-02
1990-03
1990-04
1990-05
1990-06
1990-07
1990-08
60.3
60.4
60.6
60.8
60.9
61.2
61.4
61.5
61.9
62.1
62.4
62.4
62.7
62.9
63.1
63.2
63.5
63.6
63.7
63.8
64.1
64.2
64.5
64.8
64.8
64.9
64.9
64.8
64.9
64.8
65.1
65.1
65.1
65.3
65.5
65.4
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
1990-09
1990-10
1990-11
1990-12
1991-01
1991-02
1991-03
1991-04
1991-05
1991-06
1991-07
1991-08
1991-09
1991-10
1991-11
1991-12
1992-01
1992-02
1992-03
1992-04
1992-05
1992-06
1992-07
1992-08
1992-09
1992-10
1992-11
1992-12
1993-01
1993-02
1993-03
1993-04
1993-05
1993-06
1993-07
1993-08
1993-09
1993-10
1993-11
1993-12
1994-01
1994-02
1994-03
65.9
65.6
65.3
65.2
64.9
64.8
64.7
64.8
64.9
65.1
65.1
65.1
65.3
65.3
65.3
65.2
65.4
65.5
65.7
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.3
66.2
66.3
66.4
66.5
67.3
67.0
67.2
67.0
67.3
67.4
67.5
67.6
67.7
67.9
68.1
68.3
69.0
68.8
68.9
69.4
1994-04
1994-05
1994-06
1994-07
1994-08
1994-09
1994-10
1994-11
1994-12
1995-01
1995-02
1995-03
1995-04
1995-05
1995-06
1995-07
1995-08
1995-09
1995-10
1995-11
1995-12
1996-01
1996-02
1996-03
1996-04
1996-05
1996-06
1996-07
1996-08
1996-09
1996-10
1996-11
1996-12
1997-01
1997-02
1997-03
1997-04
1997-05
1997-06
1997-07
1997-08
1997-09
1997-10
69.6
69.9
70.1
70.2
70.6
70.8
71.1
71.4
71.7
71.9
71.9
72.1
72.1
72.2
72.4
72.4
72.8
73.0
73.0
73.3
73.4
73.3
73.8
73.9
74.1
74.5
74.7
74.9
75.1
75.3
75.5
75.8
75.9
76.2
76.7
76.9
77.1
77.3
77.7
78.0
78.2
78.6
78.9
1997-11
1997-12
1998-01
1998-02
1998-03
1998-04
1998-05
1998-06
1998-07
1998-08
1998-09
1998-10
1998-11
1998-12
1999-01
1999-02
1999-03
1999-04
1999-05
1999-06
1999-07
1999-08
1999-09
1999-10
1999-11
1999-12
2000-01
2000-02
2000-03
2000-04
2000-05
2000-06
2000-07
2000-08
2000-09
2000-10
2000-11
2000-12
2001-01
2001-02
2001-03
2001-04
2001-05
79.3
79.6
79.9
80.2
80.4
80.6
81.0
81.1
81.0
81.6
81.8
82.1
82.3
82.5
82.6
83.1
83.1
83.3
83.6
83.8
84.0
84.3
84.3
84.8
85.1
85.6
85.9
85.9
86.3
86.6
86.7
86.8
86.9
86.9
87.1
87.0
87.1
87.2
87.1
87.1
87.0
86.7
86.6
2001-06
2001-07
2001-08
2001-09
2001-10
2001-11
2001-12
2002-01
2002-02
2002-03
2002-04
2002-05
2002-06
2002-07
2002-08
2002-09
2002-10
2002-11
2002-12
2003-01
2003-02
2003-03
2003-04
2003-05
2003-06
2003-07
2003-08
2003-09
2003-10
2003-11
2003-12
2004-01
2004-02
2004-03
2004-04
2004-05
2004-06
2004-07
2004-08
2004-09
2004-10
2004-11
2004-12
86.3
86.3
86.3
85.9
86.0
85.8
85.8
85.8
85.8
85.8
85.9
86.0
86.2
86.1
86.2
86.1
86.0
86.3
86.1
86.3
86.1
86.1
86.0
86.2
86.4
86.6
86.6
86.7
86.9
87.2
87.2
87.2
87.4
87.7
87.8
88.2
88.1
88.4
88.5
88.7
89.0
89.0
90.0
2005-01
2005-02
2005-03
2005-04
2005-05
2005-06
2005-07
2005-08
2005-09
2005-10
2005-11
2005-12
2006-01
2006-02
2006-03
2006-04
2006-05
2006-06
2006-07
2006-08
2006-09
2006-10
2006-11
2006-12
2007-01
2007-02
2007-03
2007-04
2007-05
2007-06
2007-07
2007-08
2007-09
2007-10
2007-11
2007-12
2008-01
2008-02
2008-03
2008-04
2008-05
2008-06
2008-07
89.5
89.7
89.7
90.1
90.3
90.6
90.7
90.8
90.5
90.8
91.4
91.7
92.1
92.3
92.6
92.6
92.6
92.7
92.7
92.9
93.0
93.2
93.3
93.8
93.7
94.1
94.3
94.4
94.5
94.5
94.4
94.6
94.7
94.7
94.8
94.8
94.8
94.6
94.4
94.2
93.9
93.7
93.3
2008-08
2008-09
2008-10
2008-11
2008-12
2009-01
2009-02
2009-03
2009-04
2009-05
2009-06
2009-07
2009-08
2009-09
2009-10
2009-11
2009-12
2010-01
2010-02
2010-03
2010-04
2010-05
2010-06
2010-07
2010-08
2010-09
2010-10
2010-11
2010-12
2011-01
2011-02
2011-03
2011-04
2011-05
2011-06
2011-07
2011-08
2011-09
2011-10
2011-11
2011-12
2012-01
2012-02
92.9
91.9
91.8
91.2
90.3
89.1
88.5
87.7
87.3
87.1
86.7
86.8
86.8
86.8
86.8
87.0
87.1
87.1
87.2
87.5
87.9
88.4
88.6
88.7
88.8
88.8
89.0
89.1
89.5
89.9
89.8
90.1
90.1
90.1
90.4
90.7
90.8
90.8
91.1
91.1
91.6
92.0
92.3
2012-03
2012-04
2012-05
2012-06
2012-07
2012-08
2012-09
2012-10
2012-11
2012-12
2013-01
2013-02
2013-03
2013-04
2013-05
2013-06
2013-07
2013-08
2013-09
2013-10
2013-11
2013-12
2014-01
2014-02
2014-03
2014-04
2014-05
2014-06
2014-07
2014-08
2014-09
2014-10
2014-11
2014-12
2015-01
2015-02
2015-03
2015-04
2015-05
2015-06
2015-07
2015-08
2015-09
92.4
92.7
92.8
92.8
92.8
92.7
92.9
93.1
93.8
94.5
93.4
93.6
93.6
93.8
94.1
94.2
94.1
94.4
94.6
94.7
95.1
95.2
95.2
95.6
96.0
96.2
96.4
96.7
96.9
97.1
97.4
97.6
97.9
98.2
98.4
98.5
98.4
98.6
98.6
98.6
98.9
99.0
99.2
2015-10
2015-11
2015-12
2016-01
2016-02
2016-03
2016-04
2016-05
2016-06
2016-07
2016-08
2016-09
2016-10
2016-11
2016-12
2017-01
2017-02
2017-03
2017-04
2017-05
2017-06
2017-07
2017-08
2017-09
2017-10
2017-11
2017-12
2018-01
2018-02
2018-03
2018-04
2018-05
2018-06
2018-07
2018-08
2018-09
2018-10
2018-11
2018-12
2019-01
2019-02
2019-03
2019-04
99.3
99.2
99.3
99.5
99.5
99.6
99.6
99.5
99.8
100.0
100.1
100.3
100.5
100.6
101.0
101.1
101.2
101.4
101.6
101.9
102.0
102.2
102.3
102.5
102.9
103.3
103.5
103.4
103.7
103.9
104.1
104.2
104.5
104.7
105.1
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.7
105.9
105.9
106.0
105.8
2019-05
2019-06
2019-07
2019-08
2019-09
2019-10
2019-11
2019-12
2020-01
2020-02
2020-03
2020-04
2020-05
2020-06
2020-07
2020-08
2020-09
2020-10
2020-11
2020-12
2021-01
2021-02
105.9
106.1
106.1
106.5
106.5
106.5
106.9
106.9
107.1
107.4
105.2
92.8
95.2
98.9
100.8
101.8
102.3
102.9
103.0
102.9
103.1
103.0

Purchase answer to see full
attachment

Explanation & Answer:
750 Words

Tags:
management

business

cycle

User generated content is uploaded by users for the purposes of learning and should be used following Studypool’s honor code & terms of service.