A multiple choice exam has 4 choices for each question. A student has studied enough so that the probability they will know the answer to a question is 0.5, the probability that they will be able to eliminate one choice is 0.25, otherwise all 4 choices seem equally plausible. If they know the answer they will get the question right. If not they have to guess from the 3 or 4 choices. As the teacher you want the test to measure what the student knows. If the student answers a question correctly what’s the probability they knew the answer?

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A multiple choice exam has 4 choices for each question. A student has studied enough so
that the probability they will know the answer to a question is 0.5, the probability that they
will be able to eliminate one choice is 0.25, otherwise all 4 choices seem equally plausible.
If they know the answer they will get the question right. If not they have to guess from the
3 or 4 choices.
As the teacher you want the test to measure what the student knows. If the student answers
a question correctly what’s the probability they knew the answer?

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