Increase in Tax on Cigarettes In Smoking Population Question
Description
I have attached two documents below, one includes a summery of this term paper you are about to write, this summery includes the topic(about smoking rate), the three research paper you need to investigate. The guideline includes all the steps and requirements. This term paper should be around 15 pages long but its ok if you cannot write that long, it’s more about the quality of the context.
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Does an Increase in Tax on Cigarettes reduce the Smoking Population?
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Does an Increase in Tax on Cigarettes reduce the Smoking Population?
An estimated 34.1 million (14.0%) of the United States (US) adult population were
cigarette smokers in 2019. Additionally, more than 16 million Americans live with a smokingrelated disease. The total economic cost of smoking in the US in 2016 was approximately at
more than $300 billion per year. It included nearly $170 billion in direct medical care for adults
and more than $156 billion in lost productivity due to exposure to second-hand smoke and
premature deaths. The study of this topic question is essential in determining whether tax
increases can reduce cigarette consumption and improve public health and the economy in
general. This paper will discuss how tax rises in cigarettes influence the number of smoking rates
and determine whether it positively affects public health and economics.
Summary
First article title. The potential for using exercise taxes to reduce smoking
The economic question addressed in the article. What is the potential for reducing
cigarette smoking through increases in cigarette exercise taxes by estimating the price elasticity
of demand for cigarettes?
How the Article Helps in Answering my Research Question? This article will shed
light on whether increasing cigarette exercise taxes by estimating the price elasticity of demand
for cigarettes would reduce the smoking population rate.
Details about the data: The data set contained 19,266 observations with information on
the smoking behaviour of individuals 20-74 years of age from 430 survey sites nationwide. The
data is cross-sectional since it comprises many observations at the same point in time (1976). It
was a 1976 Health Interview Survey (HIS), a nationwide survey that collected weekly data by
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household interview. About the data sourse, all the variables included in the analysis, except
cigarette prices, are reported on the public use data tapes purchased from National Centre for
Health Statistics (NCHS). Average cigarette prices were calculated based on data from the
Tobacco Tax Council (TTC). The study was done in September 1981 in 430 surveys sites in the
US. Has conducted 19266 observations.
Estimation methods used. The study used the least square method. Dependent variable
is the amount smoked by an individual. Independent variables are the average price of cigarettes
is a vector of individual and household characteristics, including family income, family size,
education, age, sex, marital status, health status and race, a vector of region and city size
characteristics and a random disturbance team.
Key results from the article. The results suggest that an increase in the price of cigarette
consumption would reduce cigarette consumption primarily through reductions in the smoking
participation rate while having a much smaller impact on the number of cigarettes demanded by
smokers.
Second article title. The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult
tobacco product use
The economic question addressed in the article. What is the effect of higher tax rates
on adult use of traditional cigarettes and e-cigarette?
How the article helps in answering my research question? According to Pesko &
Courtemanche (2020), the paper will assist me in finding out the effect of imposing higher taxes
on both traditional cigarettes and e-cigarettes to the users compared to the counterfactual of not
having the tax.
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Details about the data. The data used was observational data done through telephone
interviews. The type of data is Panel data from the period 2011 to 2018. The study utilized two
large-scale national health survey data sources: The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
(BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) that include information on vaping
and smoking. The study covers increases in traditional cigarette exercise tax rates in 21 states
and five counties between 2011 and 2018 and the implementation of e-cigarette taxes in ten
states and two counties in the US.
Estimation methods used. The study used the least square method. Dependent variable
is an individual interviewed in year-quarter who resides in a particular county and state.
Independent variables are the demographics, data source and income.
Key results from the article
The results suggest that smokers use e-cigarettes when traditional cigarette taxes rise,
either to continue to consume some portion of their regular nicotine at a lower relative price or as
a means to quit smoking.
Third article title. Do higher tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking? New evidence of the
effect of recent cigarette tax increases on adult smoking.
Justification: This article was published by Economic Inquiry which was ranked 126th. It
was observational data and it is multivariate analysis.
The economic question addressed in the article. Do higher tobacco taxes reduce adult
smoking?
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How the article helps in answering my research question. The article provides solid
evidence on how an increase in tobacco taxes does not necessarily decrease its consumption.
Details about the data: The data collected observational data whereby respondents were
asked questions regarding tobacco usage. Type of data would be panel gathered between 19952007. Unit of observation is the data point corresponds to households and a time frame between
1995-2007. The study uses the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements (CPSTUS) data, a tobacco survey sponsored by the Nation Cancer Institute as the data source. The
number of observations are 1,058,480 respondents.
Estimation method The study used the least square method. Dependent variableis the
measure of smoking propensity and intensity. Independent variables are age, sex, race,
education, employment status, marital status and family income.
Articles key results. The results suggest that adult smoking is mainly unaffected by
taxes. Cigarette tax increases may negatively affect cigarette consumption (Callison and Robert,
2014).
Article three analysis
The study has a high internal validity because it has deduced a causal relationship
between a cigarette tax increase and cigarette consumption. It has been shown that smoking is
mainly unaffected by taxes. One weakness is statistical regression because the scores of
individuals on the dependent variable may be due to the natural performance of those persons
and measurement errors. Another weakness of the study is the selection of the respondents who
might not have given accurate information about their smoking status. The study had a high
external validity since the results gathered were similar to results from previous studies. One of
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the weaknesses of external validity is selection bias since one might be wrong in generalizing the
findings of a particular study.
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References
Callison, Kevin, & Robert, Kaestner. (2014), Do higher tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking? New
evidence of the effect of recent cigarette tax increases on adult smoking, economic inquiry, vol.
52(1), pages 155-172. DO HIGHER TOBACCO TAXES REDUCE ADULT SMOKING? NEW
EVIDENCE OF THE EFFECT OF RECENT CIGARETTE TAX INCREASES ON ADULT
SMOKING (heartland.org)
Lewit, Eugene M. & Coate, Douglas, (1981). The potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking.
Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 121-145.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w0764/w0764.pdf
Pesko, Michael. F., Courtemanche, Charles. J. & Maclean, Johanna. Catherine, (2020). The effects of
traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use. Journal of Risk and
Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 229-258. https://sci-hub.mksa.top/10.1007/s11166-02009330-9
Guidelines for Final Term Paper
Note that your work will be assessed for similarity/plagiarism by Turnitin. You will only be able
to upload file types/formats that Turnitin can check for similarity. That includes Microsoft
Words files and PDF files that are not images. For example, a PDF file generated by a scanner
will not work as it will be an image.
If you object to having your work assess for plagiarism by Turnitin, you must meet with me
ahead of the submission deadline to discuss alternative methods of assessment.
Key Goals for the Final Paper:
1. Demonstrate your understanding of the articles you have selected.
2. Demonstrate that you can identify and explain the strengths and weaknesses
of the articles you have selected.
3. Demonstrate that you can synthesize the results of the articles you have
selected to come to a conclusion regarding your research question.
Structure of the Final Paper.
***note that the paper structure imposed here was not imposed at the time the sample term papers posted on A2L
were written. Follow the section numbers described below.
Section 1: Introduction (this section should fit in approximately 1 page)
An introduction to your topic which provides some context for your work. The following points must be covered:
(1) What is the economic question addressed in your term paper?
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(2) You must provide a motivation for your paper. That is, you must convince the reader that the question
you are working on is important and relevant (crudely put: why should we care about reading your paper?).
(3) State government policies related to your work (if any).
(4) Give a roadmap of your paper.
Section 2. First Article (4 pages or less)
I.
Description of the article
(1) The economic questions addressed or hypotheses tested in the paper/article.
(2) Details of the data used. The following points must be covered:
i. Observational data or data from a controlled experiment? If the latter, was it a lab, social
or field experiment?
ii. Type of data: panel, time series or cross-sectional?
iii. Unit of observation:
Examples for cross-sectional data: a household, a firm, an industry, a province
Examples for time series: a month, a quarter, a year
Examples for panel data: a household in a month, a country in a year
iv. Data source(s) (all acronyms should be defined)
v. Years and geographic area covered
vi. Number of observations
(3) Details relative to quantitative method(s) used. You must provide enough detail for me to understand
how the authors got their estimates.
a.
b.
If an experiment is carried out: Tell us about the treatment and control groups (size, criteria) and
the key details of the experimental design. Was there random assignment? Are the researchers
using a difference or difference-in-difference method (or some other methods) or regression
analysis to test the effect of the treatment?
If an observational study: what is the regression model estimated. It is preferable to include an
equation showing the model estimated (define all variables in the equation). Failing that, you
must list the dependent and independent variables. How are the regression models estimated
(OLS, maximum likelihood, IV, other)?
(4) The articles key results. I expect you to report numerical estimates (e.g. an increase in the minimum
wage by $1 increases the unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points) and to report whether they are
statistically significant. You will lose marks if the results you report are not directly connected to what
you wrote in part (3) immediately above. What do those results have to say about your own research
question? This point is of capital importance.
(5) Policy implications of the results (if relevant to policy).
II.
Analysis of the article
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Internal strengths
Internal weaknesses. Try to explain the type of bias (over- or under-estimate) that might exist.
External strengths
External weaknesses. Try to explain the type of bias (over- or under-estimate) that might exist.
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***The quality of you discussion of external and especially internal validity will significantly affect your grade. A
long list of strengths and weaknesses without justifications is not as good as an in-depth analysis of fewer strengths
and weaknesses.
Section 3. Second Article (same as for first article)
Section 4. Third Article (same as for first article)
There is no need to repeat if, for example, two articles use the same data source. Just refer to the description in the
earlier article.
Section 5: Concluding Section. (no more than 3 pages)
In this section, you use the articles you reviewed above to come to an answer to your research question. In the
process, I expect you to include a summary of the key results from the articles you are reviewing and explain how
they are connected.
The argument you make should take into account of the results of the articles as well as your assessment of the
validity of the results. Make sure your reasoning is clear and coherent and that you state any assumption you make.
What future research would need to be done on this topic?
List of References
The final page of your paper contains the complete references of all papers covered in your term paper.
A Few Basic Rules.
1. Your paper will be graded on economic content, formatting and writing style.
2. Each paper should have a title page including your name and a title that describes your topic. Yes, you will lose
marks if you do not include a title page.
3. Referencing.
In-text citation: Cuff (1998) or Smith, Jones and Barry (2009)
You only need to include page numbers if using direct quotes BUT please AVOID. Use your own words. You can
use Chicago or APA citations styles. The APA citations style are explained in the video found at
https://avenue.cllmcmaster.ca/d2l/le/content/215571/viewContent/1793600/View
4. All margins set to 2.5cm, use 12pt fonts and line spacing=1.5. If you do not follow these formatting
requirements, I will send your paper back and you will need to reformat it and incur a late penalty.
5. Page limit: Page limits for all sections are provided above. Pay attention to them, I wont read any text exceeding
those limits. I privilege quality over quantity so longer papers will not necessarily earn higher marks. For those who
cover more than 3 papers, you get a maximum of one page per extra article.
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6. Points will be deducted for poor spelling and grammar. Use a good spell check and grammar check.
7. Please avoid a large number of quotations.
8. A partial list of practices to avoid
Long paragraphs. (Paragraphs are used to indicate a change in topic.)
Contractions (wont, cant, etc.)
Frequent use of the first person (I will discuss, I will show, etc.)
Informal or chatty style of writing.
9. Papers for other courses. The paper you submit in 4F03 cannot also be submitted in another course.
10. Acknowledging Sources. Please be VERY careful to acknowledge all sources which you consulted during the
preparation of your paper. You should reference not just published work, but also unpublished papers, including those
of other students. Each source should be acknowledged by author and date in the text. Turnitin provides a very
effective report on the extent to which your text matches the text in journal articles, working papers and other student
papers. NOT ONLY OUTRIGHT PLAGIARISM WILL BE PENALIZED. SERIOUS POINTS WILL BE
DEDUCTED FOR FAILURE TO ACKNOWLEDGE DIRECT QUOTES TAKEN FROM OTHER SOURCES.
Please see the Course Outline for further details on Academic Ethics.
Writing Help
Writing Support Services in the Student Success Centre provides a variety of services to help students improve their
writing. These services include Writing Assistants and a Writing Process Workshop. Much more information is at
https://studentsuccess.mcmaster.ca/academic-skills/writing-support/
Here is the breakdown of the weights I will use when assessing your paper:
10%
6%
8%
13%
13%
16%
8%
10%
5%
11%
Introduction section
Economic questions in papers reviewed
Details about data
Details relative to the quantitative method(s )
Description of the main results and policy implications if there are any
Analysis of internal validity
Analysis of external validity
Concluding section
Formatting (cover page, page numbers, references)
Writing
Q&AS:
1. Will my grade be reduced if my Final paper has less than the maximum
number of pages
allowed?
No. Your grade will depend on the quality of your discussion and not on the
number of pages
filled with the text.
2. Do I need to re-write my summary paper or can I use the text from it for my
final paper?
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You do not have to write a completely new paper. Use the text from your
summary paper. You
can keep the portions of the text as they are and/or re-write them and/or extend
them and add
something new whatever makes your final paper better.
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Explanation & Answer:
600 words
Tags:
Increase in Tax on Cigarettes
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