A paper on John F Kennedy, 
a former president of the United States, 
what he did as president, how he changed America, 
include risks he had to take as president, 
what he did for America, things that go down into U.S History

Introduction

 

Fishing is an ancient practice that dates back thousands of years. Starting at least 40,000 years ago, people began catching fish from the oceans. Throughout time, fishing has evolved from what once was a way to catch food to now into an industry of its own. The oceans have become littered with fleets of boats due to commercial fishing companies.

 

Waters of the high seas are very competitive as each commercial company wants to bring in the biggest catch possible. For the companies, the demand for fish is high and as a result the larger the catch, the larger the profit. To meet demand, fishing practices have also evolved. Large companies choose now to use practices such as bottom trawling and dynamite fishing. More fish are able to be caught, however the fish are being caught at a higher cost. Practices such as these, and many like them, are extremely harmful for aquatic ecosystems.

 

The practice of pulling fish from the ocean is a staple of life for many. As the fishing industry has grown, the people around it and supporting it has also grown. In the past people who lived along the water relied on fish as a means of food. This has grown to the extent that entire coastal towns and cities now rely on fishing. Many people have connections to the industry in one way or another. For some individuals, the economy where they live is affected by the fishing industry while other people seek fish as a low cost healthy food they can include in their diet. The largest group of people connected to the industry is the vast number of fisherman. Fishing has evolved from a method to catch food for the few into a relied on way of life for the masses.

 

History

Oceans cover a vast amount of area and are enormous. In total, oceans cover 71 percent of the entire Earth’s surface. This leaves the majority of the earth available to host aquatic life. From this, the large oceans have come to house thousands of fish species and other aquatic life. The natural supply of fish throughout the world was more than enough to satisfy the need that humans present.

 

In early times, people would only pull from the ocean the amount of fish they needed. As time went on, fishing became a profitable industry and eventually became commercialized. The first vessels, whose purpose was to catch fish, arrived during the 16th century. These ships were wind powered and used long drifting nets to catch fish, specifically the species of herring. After the nets where full, men would retrieve the nets throwing the caught fish from the nets to the deck of the vessel. This ship would stay around for nearly three centuries until larger vessels were introduced in the 19th century. The new fleets of larger ships received power from steam and eventually gas engines. This new form of vessel revolutionized fishing. As stocks of fishes closer to shore were becoming depleted, the new vessels could travel farther easier in search of more fish.

 

Around the middle of the twentieth century, the natural world supply of fish no longer became enough to satisfy human demand. Demand has grown overtime to unsustainable rates. From the 1960’s to present day, the fish consumption per capita has nearly doubled from 9.9kg to around 16.4 kg (“Greenfacts,” 2005). To meet the increasing demand, the commercial fishing industry has also grown and adapted. After World War II, commercial fishing vessels replaced traditional sustainable fishing equipment with new industrial equipment, ranging from trawling equipment, enormous nets, on ship processing and packing plants, and even sonar sensors that help the fisherman find fish. Fishing trips became more profitable in the short run. However, by the late 1960’s, there was a noticeable decrease in many different fish stocks.

 

What is Overfishing? 

Overfishing occurs when more fish are caught than then what the fish population can replace through natural reproduction. At the current rates fish are being pulled from the water, fishing will not be sustainable. Over 85 percent of the world’s fisheries have already been pushed to or beyond their ecological limit.  To make matters worse, nearly 20 percent of the world population relies on fish as one fifth of their diet while over 35 million people are employed in the fishing industry.  As billions of people rely on fish for food, and as fishing is a way of live for millions around the world, this creates an enormous sustainability problem. Overfishing will cause stocks of all species of fish currently fished to collapse, or cease to exist, by the middle of the century. This will result in many people being left without food along with many people being left without jobs. The current practices of unsustainable fishing will cause the possible collapse of entire ecosystems resulting in the loss of a food source that many depend on for economical and dietary reasons.

 

Impact on Aquatic Environments

 

Magnitude of Overfishing

Fish is considered a healthy food, largely thanks to doctors and others promoting the health benefits of eating the aquatic species. Many people incorporate fish, due to the fact it is high in protein and low in fat, into their diet. As the demand for fish grows, the commercial fishing industries drive to supply fish also grows. More and more ships are being sent out to catch more and more fish. It is believed the global fishing fleet is two to three times larger than what the oceans can sustainability support (” Unsustainable fishing, ” 2010).

 

The increase in ships on the water has allowed more fish to be pulled from the oceans. Figure 1 below shows that the total fish caught around the world has alarmingly increased at an unprecedented rate. In Figure 1, we can see that the amount of fish caught began to increase around the 1950’s. The rate of the increase remained relatively constant until around a decade later. In the 1960’s, the total world catch began to increase greatly. This is partly due to the advancements in technology that were introduced in that time period. New technology allowed boats on the water to be able to catch more fish than they once could. In the decades that followed the 60’s, around 50 percent of the major fisheries areas shown in Figure 1 steadily increased their total catch by a substantial amount.  The Pacific, Southeast more than tripled their total catch in a matter of only five decades while the Western Central and Northwest Pacific roughly doubled their total catch. The commercial fishing industry pulling this many fish from the water is quickly depleting fish stocks.

 

 

Figure 1: World Marine Catch Over Time

 

World marine catch (million tonnes) by major marine fisheries areas.

Source: Fisheries and Aquaculture Department

 

 

Destructive Fishing Practices

The commercial fishing industry abides by very few regulations. Many countries refuse international regulation that the UN puts in place. Certain countries decide to not adopt practices such as checking if the fish entering their county was caught legally. The regulations and rules that do exist are often not strict enough. Fish catch limits are still too high to be sustainable. Worst of all, governments are not regulating what areas can be fished. On the water, there are too few protected areas and no fishing zones allowing commercial fishing companies to fish almost anywhere they like. Regulation lacks to where only one percent of the oceans have been declared as protected areas. Of the protected areas, regulation allows for 90 percent of protected areas to be fished (“ Fishing problems,” 2015)

 

From the lack of regulations, along with the addition of more stocks becoming depleted, the fishing industry has developed new ways to catch fish. These new practices are extremely destructive to delicate aquatic habitats. Destructive fishing practices include cyanide fishing, ghost fishing, bottom trawling, and dynamite fishing.

Cyanide fishing is the technique were fisherman release sodium cyanide into the water. The sodium cyanide stuns the fish without killing them. This makes it far easier for the fisherman to catch the fish, but the byproduct of cyanide remains in the water. As fish are roughly 1,000 times more sensitive to cyanide than humans, the leftover cyanide becomes a lethal dose to any aquatic life that comes in contact with it (“Effects Of Cyanide Fishing,” 2011).Sodium cyanide that is left over kills coral polyps and algae. It is believed that for every fish caught using this process, around a square meter of their coral reef home is destroyed.

 

Ghost fishing occurs when gear, such as large nets, are lost or abandoned at sea. The nets still have the ability to catch fish trapping many different species inside them. Once they get caught on the ocean floor, the nets litter seabeds. Over 1,000km of ghost nets are released into the ocean a year (“Fishing Problems,” 2015).

 

Bottom trawling and dynamite fishing are similar in so far as they destroy the underwater environment. In bottom trawling, nets are fitted with large rubber tires or rollers that allow them to pass over anything on the ocean floor. The nets that are used can be extremely powerful as they are able to move boulders that weigh up to 25 tonnes (“Fishing Problems,” 2015). As they drag across the ocean floor, they often destroy anything in their path. In figure 2 below, we can see the devastating affect bottom trawling has on coral reefs. The majority of the coral reef, which was once full of aquatic life, was destroyed from the large rollers on the nets. All that is left is the remains of what once was a thriving aquatic ecosystem.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2: Florida’s Oculina Banks

 

 

Remains of smashed and dead coral fragments in a trawling ground.

Source: Impacts of Ocean Trawling, Oceana

 

 

Likewise, the practice of dynamite fishing also destroys the ocean floor. In this practice, explosives are set off underwater killing fish and allowing them to rise to the surface to be collected. The explosives completely destroy the underwater environment. All that is left is for the rubble to settle. This practice, sometimes also referred to as blast fishing, leaves the aquatic ecosystem helpless. Once dynamite fishing is used in an area, the spot cannot be helped as even human intervention cannot help the coral reef recover

(“Recovery from blast fishing on coral reefs,” 2006)

 

Together, these practices harm many coral reefs and sea grass meadows. As these aquatic features are vital fish breeding grounds, fish stocks are greatly harmed. Along with being overfished, the stocks aren’t able to reproduce either greatly limiting their sustainability. It is believed that from these practices 20 percent of coral reefs around the world have been destroyed. Along with what has already been destroyed, another 24 percent of reefs are under imminent risk of collapse while 26 percent are under long term threat of collapse (“Effects of Cyanide Fishing,” 2011). Continued fishing practices such as these will eventually destroy the majority of coral reefs greatly increasing the threats of overfishing.

 

 

 

Threats Caused by Overfishing

Overfishing has causes for an array of negative effects.. The unsustainable fishing practices have resulted in creating many problems that affect a large group of people. Of the different effects, the sustainability issue posed to aquatic ecosystems is the largest. Most aquatic ecosystems are on the brink of collapse as a result of overfishing. Research shows that 80 percent of all the world’s fish stocks are either overexploited, depleted, or near collapse (“Overfishing,” 2015). Despite this, commercial fisheries are still pulling fish out of the water in large rates. Once a stock of fish is depleted the entire ecosystem is affected. An example is that higher predator fish that no longer exist leaves more smaller fish in the ocean, as there is no longer a larger fish that feeds on them. Due to the increase in smaller fish existing, there is a result of increased growth of algae as byproduct. This increase in algae greatly effects the ecosystem. From large fish stocks being depleted, the entire ecosystem is affected. At current rates, overfishing will cause stocks of all species of fish currently fished to collapse by the middle of the century.

 

As a result of fish stocks becoming depleted, economic loss will ensue. The fishing industry is valued at over 50 billion dollars a year (“Danger at sea,” 2004). Fishing is a large part of many economies around the world. Overfishing will result in the loss of thousands of jobs. Coastal cities who rely on the fishing industry as a main source of income will be left without a large part of their economy. Commercial fishing companies have experienced this in the past such as the industry in Newfoundland, Canada. Once the cod stock dried up from being overfished, the industry around the coastal town collapsed.  Nearly 40,000 people lost their jobs as their where no stocks left to fish. With the practices of unsustainable fishing, this tragedy will reoccur all around the world possibly leaving many towns without jobs and a source of revenue.

 

Coastal communities are faced with the threat of decreased food security. As many coastal towns rely on fish as a main source of food, once fish stocks are depleted thousands of  people will be forced to find a new source of food. Around one billion people rely on fish as a primary source of food. Towns will struggle as they will already be facing economic troubles. Overfishing brings the possible threats of economic turmoil, an ecosystem collapse, and food scarcity.

 

What Is Being Done?

Steps to reduce overfishing are already occurring. A large organization in helping to stop the problem of overfishing is the World Wild Life foundation. This group has helped create a solution to the problem by helping to create the Marine Stewardship Council. The council helps to set standards that are used to identify sustainable fisheries. Fisheries that are MSC approved are encouraged (“Overfishing,” 2015). This helps to take the demand off of unsustainable fisheries as more consumers will move towards buying MSC approved fish. Along with decreasing unsustainable fisheries demand, this group will help to end unsustainable fishing as people will not move towards buying fish that is not approved as sustainable.

Despite only having 10 percent of the global wild-caught fish supply certified as sustainable, the group is growing rapidly. In 2015, MSC saw their market grow and expand. More importantly, MSC also saw that the consumer demand for MSC approved fish grew by five percent. Their study showed that on average 41 percent of consumers looked for sustainable caught fish. At their current rates, in a few years more than half of the consumers will demand sustainable caught fish decreasing the dependency and need for unsustainable fishing. As long as consumer demand continues to increase, the MSC’s efforts will become more viable as a solution to overfishing.

 

Conclusion

 

Overfishing is a real and very serious problem. The problem of overfishing must be acknowledged and also acted upon. From research done by many different organizations, evidence exists that shows how critical the effects of unsustainable fishing are. One of the most compelling pieces of evidence that has been found is that by the middle of the century, all species of fish that are currently fished for food will no longer exist (Worm, 2006). This shows how large the problem is as in another couple decades we will not be able to stop overfishing nor fish in general as there will be no species left to fish.

 

As the large fishing companies are the ones pulling the fish from the water, change must first start with them for a difference to be made. Tri Marine, the highest grossing fishery in North America, is largely responsible for overfishing. The commercial company brought in over a billion dollars in revenue by overfishing tuna stocks using numerous vessels. This company, and many like it, are the reason too many fish are being pulled from the water. Sustainability is not one of their cares as they continue to pull large numbers of fish from the water.

 

In the commercial fishing industry, many companies have acknowledged that an overfishing problem does exist. Despite this, greed and waste has driven the large fishing fleets to continue their practices (“Fishing problems: poor fisheries management,” 2015). Profit has more value to the companies than the environment. In some cases, fishing companies have knowledge of proposed catch limits, but decided to surpass them. Fishing companies, having lack of government regulation and the freedom of the seas, have chosen to ignore their environmental impacts in their pursuit for money.

 

Recommendations

 

1. Government Regulation

Government regulation change would greatly help to reduce the problem. Nearly 20 percent of the global catch comes from illegal fishing. If the government created a group that would better regulate or police the waters, a fifth of the overfishing problem would be solved. Also, with removing the illegal boats from the water, the amount of bycatch would also greatly be reduced along with the destruction of delicate habitats.

 

2. Incentives

A push toward only buying MSC approved fish would also help decrease the amount of fish being taken out of the water. If additional taxes were placed on non-approved fish, consumers would be driven to buy the cheaper and approved fish. This would lower the demand for fish from companies that use unsustainable practices. Consumers could also be driven to buy MSC approved fish by receiving an concession when they purchase the approved fish. Along with the product being cheaper from less tax placed on it, the consumer would be rewarded for making a sustainable choice.

 

3. Regulate the Number of Boats

The current amount of vessels on the water surpasses what the ocean can sustainably hold. If the number of boats allowed on the water was regulated, the number of fish caught would drop. As there’s only so many hours in the day to fish and so many fish one boat can hold, less boats would result in less fish being caught per fleet. This would help to decrease overfishing and allow for the stocks to recover.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

REFERENCES

Fishing problems: Poor fisheries management. (n.d.). Retrieved April 16, 2016, from http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/fisheries_ management/

Hartwick, A., & Alfson, L. (2013). Overfishing and rebuilding fish stocks in federal waters. Hauppauge, NY: Nova Science.

Hilborn, R., & Hilborn, U. (2012). Overfishing: What everyone needs to know. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?5563%2FCyanide-an-easy-but-deadly-way-to- catchfish

Overfishing. (n.d.). Retrieved April 12, 2016, from

http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/overfishing

Overfishing. (n.d.). Retrieved April 14, 2016, from

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/oceans/fit-for-thefuture/overfishing/

Status of U.S. Fisheries. (n.d.). Retrieved April 14, 2016, from http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/fisheries_eco/status_of_fisheries/

Unsustainable fishing. (n.d.). Retrieved April 10, 2016, from

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/

What is overfishing. (n.d.). Retrieved April 14, 2016, from http://overfishing.org/pages/what_is_overfishing.php

WWF conserves our planet, habitats, & species like the Panda & Tiger

Zhexembayeva, N. (2014). Overfished ocean strategy: Powering up innovation for a resource-deprived world.

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION

ACTED            Agency for Technical Co-operation and Development

BC                   Biophysical Conditions

CDMCs            Establishing of Community Disaster Management Committee

CDMP              Community Developing Disaster Management Plan

CMDRR           Community Management Disaster Risk Reduction

CP                    Contingency Plan

CS                    Coping strategies

DFID               Department For International Development

DRM                Disaster Risk Management

DRR                Disaster Risk Reduction

ENNCA           Ewaso Nyiro North Catchment area

EWS                Early Warning System

FAO                 Food and Agricultural Organization

FGD                 Focused Group Discussion

GDEWS           Global Drought Early Warning System

GDIS               Global Drought Information System

HFA                 Hyogo Framework for Action

IGA                 Income Generating Activities

ISDR                International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

KI                    Key Informant

LTM                Livestock To Markets

LRRD              Linking Relief, Rehabilitation and Development

MDGs              Millennium Development Goals

NDCP                          National Drought Contingency Planning

NDMA             National Drought Monitoring Authority

NIDIS              National Integrated Drought Information System

PDRA              Participatory Disaster Risk Analysis/Assessment

SAPLIP            Samburu Pastoralists Livelihood Improvement Project

SEE                  Social Economic Effects

UNDP             United Nations Development Program

UNEP              United Nations Environmental Programme

WFP                 World Food Programme

DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

Capacity:              A combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk, or the effects of a disaster.

Climate change: The climate of a place or region is changed if over an extended period (typically decades or longer) there is statistically significant change in measurements of either the mean state or variability of the climate for that place or region.

Coping capacity: The means by which people or organizations use available resources and

abilities to face adverse consequences that could lead to disaster.

Disaster :              A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material , economic or environment losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

Disaster risk Management: The systematic process that integrates risk identification, mitigation and transfer, as well as disaster preparedness, emergency response and rehabilitation or reconstruction to lessen the impacts of hazards.

Disaster risk reduction (DRR): The conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development.

Early warning: The provision of timely and effective information through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response.

ABSTRACT

The dynamic nature of vulnerability coupled with increasing volatility of climatic and environmental conditions, characterized by more frequent and extreme hazards, disaster management practitioners, decision makers and communities, especially those at risk, need to take action to protect vulnerable people and environments. In recent years, poor communities have had to bear the brunt of these hazards. Samburu County, which is the study area of this project, has in recent times experienced more frequent droughts.

The main objective of the study was to examine community based drought management strategies in Samburu County. Specifically, the study examined community based drought coping mechanisms, drought preparedness and mitigation strategies, early warning system and the application of indigenous knowledge as a drought management strategy in Samburu.

The study adopted a descriptive research design which targeted 47300 households in Samburu County. Quantitative data was collected using questionnaires from a selected sample of 96 respondents. Additionally, qualitative data was collected using 4 Focus Group Discussions and 10 Key Informant Interviews. The quantitative data was analyzed using the SPSS package and qualitative data analyzed thematically.

The study established that Samburu community cope with drought through mechanisms such as herd mobility, herd diversification, livelihood diversification, food consumption adjust and establishment of social networks. The drought preparedness strategies include progressive and selective destocking, contingency plans either to reduce livestock numbers and hence grazing pressure, progressive and selective reduction of grazing pressure on pastures, herd diversification and livelihood diversification. Early warning systems and transfer of indigenous knowledge are important community based drought management strategies in Samburu County. Nevertheless, various stakeholders non-governmental organizations such as ACTED, World Vision and The Samburu Project have come up with community managed disaster risk reduction approaches to enhance drought preparedness and mitigation in Samburu County.

The study recommend further study on determinants of implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action in drought risk reduction and the impact of community based organizations in drought risk reduction in Samburu County.

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1  Background of the Study

Today, the effect of environmental pollution caused by human activities and natural causes leads to human suffering, and loss of lives in some cases.  A report by the United Nations and International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR, 2009) indicates that the number of catastrophes in world has increased over the past decade due to environmental challenges. The adverse effects of the catastrophes necessitate the need by concerned authorities to identify the primary causes of the disasters, and find lasting solutions for the same. Kallis (2008) explains that by addressing the causes of the disasters, it will be possible to reduce the vulnerability of communities at the local, ethnic and national levels.

UN/ISDR (2009) findings cites drought as a primary barrier to socio-economic development of communities, leading to poor livelihood. The report further indicates that disasters that emanate from drought do not only claim lives of millions of people, but also contributes to social issues such as starvation and famine.

Different populations experience the impact of drought in varying ways depending on their vulnerability. Among the factors that determine the severity of drought in a given community include the level of water use, in the sense that high demand for water prolongs the duration of drought. Additionally, poor infrastructure intensifies water deficit.  In a report by UNISDR (2011), the effect of drought is accelerated by variables such as poverty, bad health and inter-ethnic conflicts.

A research by EM-DAT aimed at investigating drought disasters for 112 years since 1900 indicates that drought has devastating effects across the world (EM-DAT, 2013). The report indicates that the effect of drought in the United States and Mexico is estimated at $8 billion and $2.4 billion in China. However, Guha-Sapir, Vos, Below and Ponserre (2012) reveal that the extent of damages by drought may be more because of underestimation. The authors further reveal that the data used in the estimation may not include some aspects of damages caused by drought due to lack of metrics to record some damages.  It is estimated that 2011, drought affected 35 million people in China, and 17 million individuals in East African countries and Niger. Between 1900 and 2012, drought had the largest impact in China and India. The high mortality rates caused by drought during the same period were reported in China, Sudan Soviet Union, Bangladesh and India (EM-DAT, 2013).

A comprehensive understating of the impacts of drought lead to the formulation of effective preparedness plans, mitigation, response and adaptation strategies. A report by UNEP (2012), indicates that it is possible to predict the occurrence of drought using the existing systems. The prediction is important in mitigating the adverse effects of drought. However, the report reveals that the systems are only applicable after identifying the impacts of drought on the society.

The number of countries vulnerable to drought is increasing by the days thus increasing the need to formulate and implement strategies that mitigate its occurrence. This may be achieved through increasing the efficiency of water supply and climate change plans. A report by FAO (2010), indicates that communities affected by drought also suffer from other disasters such as poor health. To mitigate the challenges, it is crucial for authorities to implement crisis management programs. One of the barriers to effective drought management is inadequate information about risk reduction. A majority of institutions that address the issue of drought resistance mainly focus on the responses to drought instead of the reduction of the risk of its occurrence.  Gwimbi (2007) cites that the high cost of implementing drought management programs is one of the barriers that frustrate the efforts of mitigating drought.

In Kenya, northern Kenya is persistently affected by drought (Wamugi & Muchemi, 2011). As documented by Samburu County Drought Contingency Plan (2014), during normal drought stage, pasture and browse rejuvenate to optimum quantity and quality leading to good livestock body conditions. Birth rates also increase and water for livestock consumption is normally readily available at within 5km on average and hence no migration in search of water and pasture is experienced. At this stage, minimal livestock diseases are reported. Market operations are normally optimal with livestock fetching the best prices due to good livestock body condition and the fact that pastoralist are in no pressure to destock. However, as drought progresses, browse and pasture wilts and dries up, leading to diminished quality and eventually quantity of pasture and browse. Continued drought may lead to increased trekking distances to grazing and water points which eventually lead to migration in search of water and pasture (Samburu County Drought Contingency Plan, 2014).

Having realized that drought put many livelihoods at risk and needed effective mitigation and preparedness measures, Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015 was adopted by governments with a view to building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. Although Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015 seeks to promote community participation, it is more inclined towards empowering communities through a top-down approach rather than learning from and strengthening traditional drought disaster risk reduction strategies. In view of this shortfall, best practices in drought disaster risk reduction strategies are therefore critical.

Measham, Kelly & Smith (2007) defines best practice as an approach that leads to the generation of consistent results, making it possible to use the data as benchmark. Environmental management is among the disciplines that apply best practice technique, due to its efficiency in solving complex challenges (Measham, Kelly and Smith, 2007). Using the approach, data collected in environmental management surveys is contested against a set of data based on imperfect knowledge. The concept of best practice takes an adaptive learning approach as opposed to a fixed set of rules. Based on the high efficiency of the best practice approach, this study uses the data by United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction as a benchmark.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

According to Wamugi and Muchemi (2011), in ordinary climate, drought is one of the intense climatic conditions that normally takes place in dry parts of the earth. When drought occurs a crisis arises as the area people are adversely affect triggering for an emergency response. Effects of a drought are linked to how well the community affected was prepared for the event and this show how important it is to learn the vulnerability to drought to be able to come up with a good mitigation, preparedness and responses programmes.

To reduce the occurrence of acute drought at the community level, it is crucial to develop appropriate actions based on the risk management data. It is important to educate communities on measures to take in case of occurrence of drought. Investigating the factors that hinder effective implementation of drought management measures, Wamugi & Muchemi (2011) indicate that most of the identified techniques focus on events that happen after drought instead of preventive measures.  The current drought management measures are not consistent with other

 

development initiatives such as the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015) and the Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (2006-2015). To make the current regional and international measures that address drought effective, it is crucial to improve the efficiency of programs such as drought prediction and monitoring, as well as disaster preparedness programs.

 

A report by UNISD (2011) associates poor drought management strategies in Kenya with inadequate data. The report indicates that the drought management plans implemented in Northern Kenya are based on the perceptions of staff about the needs of the affected communities instead of qualitative data. To make the drought management plans effective at the community and national level, it is crucial to consider the concerns of the communities when formulating the plans.

Samburu County is part of Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) that mainly support pastoralist livelihoods (Samburu County Drought Contingency Plan, 2014). Boruru, Ontita, Ogara and Oguge (2011) observed that climate change in Samburu has led to an emergence of what they termed as ‘helter-skelter livelihoods’ among the pastoralists. Samburu County has experienced prolonged droughts that Ontita (2012) attributed to climate change and concluded that this phenomenon has resulted into a paradigm shift in rural development from agricultural and livestock modernization to conservancy. Ogara and Ongoro (2012) attributed persistent conflicts to drought caused by the impact of climate change. Previous studies on Samburu County in regard to drought have focused on climate change as the explanation for persistent droughts. Few or none of the studies have sought to investigate local solutions to drought and that is why the researcher wanted to find out analysis of best practices in community based disaster risk reduction.  Therefore the main focus of the study was the analysis of best practices in community based disaster risk reduction. This study sought to examine community based drought management strategies in Samburu County.

 

1.3. Main Objective

The main objective of this study was to examine the community based drought disaster risk reduction strategies among the Samburu of northern Kenya and how they help in drought coping mechanisms.

 

1.3.1 Specific Objectives

The specific objectives of the study were:

1. To identify community based drought coping mechanisms in Samburu County.
2. To examine community based drought preparedness and mitigation strategies.

• To compare community based drought Early Warning System with other systems.

1. To determine use of indigenous knowledge to inform drought management strategies.

 

1.4 Main Research Question

What are the main community based drought disaster risk reduction strategies and how do they help in drought coping mechanisms?

 

1.4.1 Specific Research Questions

The study sought to answer the following specific questions:

1. What are the community based drought coping mechanisms in Samburu County?
2. What are the community based drought preparedness and mitigation strategies?

• How does community based drought Early Warning System compare with other systems?

1. How has indigenous knowledge been used to inform drought management strategies?

 

1.5 Justification of the Study

This research study would be of great importance to the Samburu community and other stakeholders as it would outline the role of community-based drought disaster risk reduction. The study would also provide information on how community based drought coping mechanisms, community based Early Warning System, community based drought mitigation and preparedness strategies and use of indigenous knowledge would address the situation in Samburu County.

To the government of Kenya and policy makers, the study would provide information that can be used to formulate policies on community-based strategies in drought risk reduction in Kenya. To researchers and academicians the study would provide a base upon which secondary material on the role of community-based strategies in drought risk reduction in Kenya would be drawn. The study would also provide good literature on community-based strategies in drought risk reduction in Kenya. This study would also set a base upon which more studies on role of community-based strategies in drought risk reduction in Kenya can be done.

 

1.6 Scope and Limitations of the Study

This research study focused on the role of community-based strategies in drought risk reduction in Kenya. The study was limited to four factors; community based drought coping mechanisms, community based drought preparedness and mitigation strategies, community based Early Warning System. The study compared community based early warning systems with the other early warning systems used by various stakeholders in Samburu County.

In addition, this study was interested to establish how indigenous knowledge has been used to inform drought management strategies in Samburu County.  However, data collecting process was challenging because some of the respondents were unwilling to provide information required. The researcher had to explain the rationale of the study to the participants to in their confidence. They respondents were also assured that the data provided would be used for the intended purpose only, and that it would remain confidential.

 

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

 

2.1 Introduction

This chapter deals with the review of the related literature on community based drought management. The review dwells on the factors identified for investigation in the study namely drought coping mechanism, preparedness, mitigation and early warning systems. The chapter will also cover the theoretical and conceptual framework that will guide the study.

 

2.2. Drought Coping Mechanisms

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) approaches and policies should be known to the international community and make use of the grassroots plane to attend to all kinds of hazards Mercer (2010).Mercer  further states that meteorological hazards are triggered and boosted partly by climate change. Climatic change is also responsible for the variation experienced in the weather season which adversely affect people livelihoods .Mercer (2010) holds that (CAA) climate change adaptation policies should be utilized into serving those worst hit by the climate change

Masendeke and Shoko (2013) they hold that communities that have lived throughout a drought tend to adapt to the horrific situation by building survival tactics to reduce the drought impact. Masendeke and Shoko (2013) mention of how individuals in southern African have built up efficient  way to mitigate the devastation of drought on their society .these home grown mitigation ways helps in reducing food scarcity rooted by drought. The mitigation ways normally are in an order like Lessing meals taken per day, relocation and clearing assets that is affected like livestock.

Ontita (2012) views the change of Samburu community from overreliance on livestock agriculture to conservancy as a trend driven by climatic change. The community has revalued the landscape and focuses more on earning from the aesthetic value of wildlife instead of rearing livestock. The author further indicates that the community has succeeded in marketing the wildlife beauty to the world at a valuable price. The commitment of the community to develop the aesthetic value of the environment instead of livestock-keeping is viewed as a modernization paradigm necessitated by climate change. Among the benefits of the paradigm shift by the Samburu community include developed tourism as well as protection of wildlife and livestock in the community.

Nonito and Alice (2011) established that during normal conditions in Lodwar, the people preserve meat and milk, and harvest wild fruits. They avail veterinary services, and in anticipation of drought, diversify their livestock and during drought split herds, as well as mobilizing in search of water and forage. But these traditional drought preparedness and coping mechanisms as noted by Nonito and Alice (2011) are under stress from recurrent drought, increased human and livestock populations, frequent outbreaks of livestock diseases, competition and threat from wildlife. Heightened security concerns have also led to constraints on pastoralist movement in search of forage and water sources (Nonito & Alice, 2011).

2.3 Drought Preparedness Strategies

Disaster preparedness according to Nonito and Alice (2011) includes actions taken in advance of disasters such as establishing early warning systems and training front-line responders. It is the temporal connector between the pre-impact and post-impact phases. Engle (2012) argued that drought preparedness can increase adaptive capacity and resilience, because it moves beyond the traditional reactive approach that has resulted in reduced self-reliance and limited coordination across institutions and sectors. In addition, the characteristics that constitute effective drought preparedness are different depending on the scale at which one is evaluating it, as well as the sector of interest (Engle, 2012). The drought preparedness encapsulates three basic categories they include; monitoring and early warning/prediction, vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments, and mitigation and response planning and measures.

Nonito and Alice (2011) in their study on drought preparedness and response in Kenya observed that in Voi, community members rely on individual household efforts to prepare for drought. When clouds do not form for an extended period of time, certain trees shed their leaves and there are no flamingos, a drought is predicted and community members build silos to store their maize, and look for casual labour at a nearby gem stone mine and on neighboring farms. Some sell their livestock at throw away prices, and produce and sell charcoal. During drought periods community members do come together and share their resources with one another. They also come together in dealing with human-wildlife and livestock-wildlife conflicts (Nonito & Alice, 2011).

2.4 Drought Mitigation Strategies

Vicente-Serrano, Beguería, Gimeno et al. (2012) states that trying to understand, observe and lessen the effects of drought is not an easy thing given its fundamental nature of the phenomenon. Trying to evaluate the effect of a drought to the community and the ecology at large is also not an easy thing, as a certain drought with the same intensity may have varied effects to different places .to establish the risk and weakness of a system to effects of drought can be determined by the latest technology which is based on the geospatial information .the information gathered can be used to create a system for observing and forecasting responses in the present and in future.

Among the strategies that enhance the efficiency of drought preparedness measures include using information on climate to develop geospatial data (Vicente-Serrano, Beguería, Gimeno et al., 2012). Further, the authors cite the importance of using Earth Observation Systems to develop the disaster preparedness plans. Explaining the efficiency of geospatial technology in disaster preparedness programs, the authors indicate that data used is highly accurate as it is based on real-time information. The study indicates the importance of changing the approach of addressing drought management by using reactive crisis-response techniques that enhance drought management at the national and regional levels.

Occurrences of severe and persistent droughts deplete reservoirs storage to dangerous levels; this may prospect to water shortage catastrophe. Karamouz and Araghinejad (2008) give an example of Iran where the long-lead stream flow forecasts is used to guide and maintain the Zayandeh-rud River water reservoir . Karamouz and Araghinejad (2008) come up with a way of triggering limitations and apportion water to agricultural strain during times of drought and forecasting by use of long-lead forecasts. The authors cite that long-lead forecasts make use of the available information such earlier elonino or draught to forecast the recurring stream flow patterns.

2.5 Drought Early Warning System

Heim and Brewer (2012) states that the global scientific society has so many hinderers elements that makes it hard to achieve one synchronized drought monitoring and response programme .they however stress the importance of having a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS).they outline the factors as follows; organizational concern where there is no coordination among international organization, technological, logistics and scientific issues.

According to Mugogovhali (2011), communities involved in pastoralism still use traditional method of predicting drought, which may be ineffective. Among the signs used in the prediction include the failure by some identified species of trees to flower. Also, the failure of some trees to turn their leaves green after flowering is viewed as an indication of an approaching drought. Some pastoralist communities also predict the occurrence of drought using seasons, which are divided into Winter, Summer, Autumn and Spring.

2.6 Indigenous Knowledge

Indigenous knowledge or  native or home grown practices are those behaviors that people among the society adopt over a period of time while trying to lessen the adverse effect of an event .this knowledge is quit distinctive from the other types of knowledge. Its different as it is created from within the society, it is communicated in a non-formal way, communally owned ,its created over a several generations and the subject matter  in question, its set in as a society way of survival ( UN /ISDR 2009 For many years people have lived in areas that are not hazard proof and for this reason they tend to develop strategies to mitigate or defend themselves in case of an event using the available resources and skills, as well as their experiences and usually referred as indigenous knowledge. The use of indigenous knowledge in the face of hazards and other threats has helped communities in developing preparedness, early warning system, mitigation and coping mechanism strategies (Twigg, 2004).

2.7 Disaster risk reduction (DRR)

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2016) disaster risk reduction can be defined as the theory and practice undertaken to mitigate disaster risks by organized efforts to examine and supervise the contributory factors of disasters, i.e. by lessen the vulnerability, and lessen hazards, proper allocation of land. Overall, risk-reduction encapsulates: preparedness; warning based on obtaining vital information; mitigation this includes educating the public on how to avoid risks and putting in place measures to mitigate risk exposure (IFRC, 2012).

According to Twigg (2025) risk management tools such as DRR should not be implicated to be self-protective strategy. They make it possible for positive change to occur. Growth is interrelated to security .if security deteriorates growth rate is going to go down too. When DRR is effectively undertaken it gives both short term benefits and lessens weakness in the long-term even though its feasibility is still questionable.

 

 

Mercer (2010) explains the need for participatory assessments in developing effective programs to deal with climate change issues. The author cites that the assessment enables the affected populations to accurately identify and evaluate the evidence provided, as well as the proposed challenges and solutions. For accuracy in developing the programs, it is crucial for communities to use tools such as seasonal calendars and mapping. Using the participatory tools, it is possible to identify the link between societal activities and effects of natural hazards.

 

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 was developed in Japan to help understand the risk of disaster and strengthen the methods of governing disasters. The framework is also useful in implementing measures used to reduce the risk for occurrence of disasters and promoting disaster preparedness.

 

2.7.1 Community managed disaster risk reduction (CMDRR)

Community Managed Disaster Risk reduction (CMDRR) can be defined as  a procedure of getting people from the same society together in order to communally  tackle a general disaster event and come up with mitigation actions . Caritas Czech Republic (2009) states CMDRR as a situation where society analytically picks up habits to mitigate disaster risks and aims at becoming more safer and flexible in case of an event. He refers to people living around the same physical location and there is a likelihood of facing the same disasters. He further states that although they may face the same hazards they are likely to have diverse insight.

Binas (2010) stated that CMDRR envisions a dynamic community that is cohesive in making decisions, deals with conflicts, resolves issues, manages collective and individual tasks, respects the rights of each individual, demands their rights and addresses and bounces back from hazard events. According to Cordaid (2012) CMDRR is a aimed to achieve a self-motivated, safe, flexible society by rallying community members towards this goal. CMDRR aims at equalizing power among the community members, solving conflicts and help disasters victims recover from the suffered shock. As long as disaster risks are not being reduced, achieving poverty reduction, social equity improvement, and sustainable development are in serious jeopardy.

The principle of CMDRR stand for a society based growth approach for relating relief with development (FARM-Africa, 2010). This grassroots based approach greatly helps for analyzing communities’ vulnerabilities, dispute/fundamental development constraints, allocation of resources, capability, existing potentials and opportunities and involves facilitation of community based development planning.  Through identifying disaster risks, vulnerable groups and the community’s capacity, appropriate contingency plans can be developed through a participatory process to enable communities to implement disaster risk preparedness and mitigation measures, as well as emergency response actions (FARM-Africa, 2010).

 

According to International Institute of Rural Reconstruction (IIRR) and Cordaid (2013), CMDRR relies on fundamental recognition that the communities affected by these hazards also have the solutions. It engages communities in identification, analysis, monitoring and evaluation of risks to reduce people’s vulnerabilities and enhance their capacities. While it may not be possible to completely stop the occurrences of natural hazards, communities, governments and local institutions can work together to prevent hazards caused by humans, reduce risks to disasters, mitigate or manage when disasters do occur and minimize their effects on lives and livelihoods.

The Disaster Risk Reduction Formula for CMDRR offers a simple and clear and a kind of ‘mathematical’ equation on how to determine the disaster risk (Cordaid, 2012).

 

This formula translates into three areas of community managed DRR activities:  prevention and mitigation of hazards, reduction of vulnerabilities to hazards and strengthening capacities to cope and bounce back from hazards.

 

Cordaid (2012) argue that if disaster risk is reduced, the probability of the hazard event turning into a disaster is less. CMDRR process intends to build resilience of communities for disasters and increase their voice through community organisation.  The CMDRR process contains the following steps (Cordaid 2012): making partners appreciate CMDRR through explaining what it contains and why it is important; community managed disaster risk assessment and analysis; Community action plans to fill the identified capacity gaps, including contingency and development plans, designed and implemented by community members; People’s  organisation,  for  instance  through  DRR  forums  or  committees and; participatory monitoring,  evaluation  and  learning  system. ACTED proposed the following approach to enhance resilience to drought:

 

2.8 Theoretical Framework

A theoretical framework is fundamental in any study. The theoretical framework presents the theory that forms the basis of the study. In this study the researcher used symbolic interaction theory, social learning theory and participatory theory. These theories explain phenomenon on an analysis of best practice in community based disaster risk reduction in drought management strategies.

 

2.7.1 Symbolic Interactionism Theory

The symbolic interaction perspective, also called symbolic interactionism, is a major framework of sociological theory bond (Anderson & Taylor, 2009). This perspective relies on the symbolic meaning that people develop and rely upon in the process of social interaction. Although symbolic interactionism traces its origins to Max Weber’s assertion that individuals act according to their interpretation of the meaning of their world, the American philosopher George Herbert Mead introduced this perspective to American sociology in the 1920s. Symbolic interaction theory analyzes society by addressing the subjective meanings that people impose on objects, events, and behaviors. Subjective meanings are given primacy because it is believed that people behave based on what they believe and not just on what is objectively true. Thus, society is thought to be socially constructed through human interpretation. People interpret one another’s behavior and it is these interpretations that form the social bond (Anderson & Taylor, 2009).

More realistic communication models are rooted in symbolic interaction. These models emphasize dialogue, conflict resolution, consensus-building and relationship development. Symbolic risk communication also generates stories about risks, tied to cultural and social roles performed by actors in a risk event. Moreover, by adopting a symbolic approach to risk communication, government officials can participate in the social construction of threats and associated risks, and provide the narrative cues people need to go about their business, conduct their own affairs and follow individual pursuits in relative stability while maintaining appropriate vigilance (Friedman, Sharon & Carol, 1999).

 

The conventional and symbolic approaches to risk communication have parallels in how science public models are constructed and the scientific literacy model and interactive science model. The conventional or traditional perspective on risk communication rests on a sequenced series of factual and image-based sender-receiver interactions designed to inform people about actions preparatory to, and safety measures during or immediately after, an event. Studies based in the communications discipline have shown, however, that simply providing information does little to allay public concern about threats.

 

The symbolic risk communication and associated interactive science public models treat individuals as active selectors and processors of information. The social construction of risk embodies many kinds of information and personal experience, observation, media, education materials, social networks and popular culture to name a few. Individuals use different information channels for different purposes, and attend to information in those channels with varying levels of intensity, differentially applicable to self or society. Two lines of inquiry are implied, one concerning message content, and a second concerning channel or information source. The labeling with which symbolic interactionist concern themselves extends to the very degrees that symbolize completion of education. Indeed, as these examples show, labeling theory can significantly impact drought management in Samburu County. This is easily seen in the best practices in community based disaster risk reduction setting, as policy makers and more powerful social groups within the school dole out labels that are adopted by the entire school population (Moore, 1987).

2.7.2 Participatory Theory

Participatory theory is advocated by Cornwall (2002). Participatory Development seeks to engage local populations in development projects. Participatory development (PD) has taken a variety of forms since it emerged in the 1970s, when it was introduced as an important part of the “basic needs approach” to development. Participation theory promotes citizens’ involvement in decision-making as a means of encouraging community members to consider issues of common interest. There are many potential benefits. Foremost these include the ability to build local skills, interests and capacities that are on-going. Others include the ability to improve outcomes by extending the range of values and inputs into the decision-making process, and, the increased probability of acceptance and successful implementation when decisions are seen by those involved as responsible and appropriate. Involvement, it is argued, enhances co-operation, as co-operation is strongly influenced by the possibility of individuals having to deal with each other repeatedly. In addition, identification with a group, association, or cause, elevates common interests, even if individuals’ motives for membership are self-serving (Friedman, Sharon & Carol, 1999).

Participation encourages communities or groups to work together to achieve goals that are broader than those that can be achieved by individuals. Where citizens are jointly involved with elected representatives and managers this necessitates agreements for sharing responsibility and decision-making authority. Increasingly the concept of partnership is promoted, where organizations, agencies and citizens work together as equals (despite differences in power and resources) to achieve agreed objectives (Grabill & Michele, 1998).

 

2.7.3 Social Learning Theory

Bandura’s Social Learning Theory posits that people learn from one another, via observation, imitation, and modeling. The theory has often been called a bridge between behaviorist and cognitive learning theories because it encompasses attention, memory, and motivation. People learn through observing others’ behavior, attitudes, and outcomes of those behaviours. “Most human behavior is learned observationally through modeling: from observing others, one forms an idea of how new behaviors are performed, and on later occasions this coded information serves as a guide for action” (Bandura, 1997). Social learning theory explains human behavior in terms of continuous reciprocal interaction between cognitive, behavioral, and environmental influences. Bandura believed in “reciprocal determinism”, that is, the world and a person’s behavior cause each other, while behaviorism essentially states that one’s environment causes one’s behavior, Bandura, who was studying adolescent aggression, found this too simplistic, and so in addition he suggested that behavior causes environment as well. Later, Bandura soon considered personality as an interaction between three components: the environment, behavior, and one’s psychological processes (one’s ability to entertain images in minds and language). Social learning theory has sometimes been called a bridge between behaviorist and cognitive learning theories because it encompasses attention, memory, and motivation.

Considerable emphasis has been placed in the more communicative and strategic aspects of Social learning Theory based on the idea that people, collectively, are capable of forming a learning system that can cope with uncertainty and challenges. Making use of stakeholders’ different knowledge, interests and experiences, it has been applied through a vast array of participatory methods, with the intention of fostering collective sustainable change (Abraham, 1992). This orientation makes it particularly relevant in natural resource management, as it addresses complex social processes such as the role of participation in its governance process. As explained by Abraham, (1992), ‘social Learning is understood as a process of communication and collective learning potentially establishing and changing relationships thus contributing to transforming existing structures of governance’.

 

Social learning is relevant as a major challenge of participation in community based management and relates to power inequalities. Social learning actively seeks heterogeneity in participation and its design needs to be aware of power dynamics of in group learning. Such learning is aided by the role of the facilitator as a “process expert” rather than by the formal process of disseminating knowledge which typically relies on a much more hierarchical role of those that “know” and those that do not. The most important goals of social learning are about learning from and with each other, promoting the diversity of in group learning, creating trust and social cohesion and building in participants a sense of ownership over learning processes and results.

Social learning can be described in several ways, covering spontaneous if not inevitable social phenomenon between interacting people to a strategic tool in assisting processes of transformation. The concept of social learning in relation to natural resource management is gaining more popularity amongst theory and action research. This orientation make social learning particularly relevant as it addresses complex social processes such as the role of participation in the governance process. The different modes of social learning lay across a wide spectrum allowing also be translated into different modes of learning that a given collective is prepared to acknowledge and implement in the pursuit of change (Grabill & Michele, 1998).

 

2.9 Conceptual Framework

The Hyogo Framework for Action (2005–2015) adopted by 168 nations at the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction, recognizes 5 major challenges in ensuring systematic action on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) (a) Governance: (b) Risk identification, assessment, monitoring and early warning; (c) Knowledge management and education; (d) Reducing underlying risk factors and (e) Preparedness for effective response and recovery. This study adopts The Hyogo Framework for Action (2005–2015) priority areas as a benchmark to analyze community based drought management strategies in Samburu County. The conceptual framework is presented in figure 2.1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Variables                                   Intervening Variables                        Dependent Variable

 

 

 

The study has adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 to conceptualize the relationship between the study variables as shown in Figure 2.1. The conceptual framework above comprise of independent, intervening and the dependent variables in the study. The independent variables comprise of community drought coping mechanisms, community preparedness and mitigation strategies, community early warning systems and indigenous knowledge. The study analyses community drought coping mechanisms by examining herd mobility, herd diversification and livelihood diversification. Community preparedness and mitigation strategies include: destocking, rationing pastures, herd diversification, livelihood diversification and emergency relief. The study examines community early warning systems in terms of indigenous early warning Systems and non-indigenous early warning Systems. The study analyses the indigenous knowledge by focusing at traditional knowledge transfer and contemporary knowledge transfer.

The dependent variable in the study is drought mitigation. The study investigates how the disaster risk reduction strategies contributes to drought mitigation through reduced vulnerability and increased drought resilience in Samburu County. The variables intervening the influence of disaster risk reduction strategies on drought mitigation include people, livestock and the environment. The study further conceptualizes the relationship between the independent and the dependent variables on the basis of priority areas in the Hyogo Framework for Action. The priority areas include: making disaster risk reduction a priority, knowing the risk and taking action, building awareness and understanding, reducing underlying risk factors and the preparedness and readiness to act on drought mitigation strategies.

 

 

 

 

 

2.10 Operational Definition of Variables

Objectives	Independent Variables	Indicators	Measurement Scale	Data Analysis
To identify community based drought coping mechanisms in Samburu County	Coping strategies	Adaptation to water shortages	Ordinal scale	Descriptive statistics Thematic analysis
To investigate on community based drought preparedness and mitigation used in Samburu County	Preparedness and mitigation strategies	Efforts in place to anticipate drought and measures to ease effects of drought	Ordinal scale	Descriptive statistics Thematic analysis
To compare community based drought Early Warning System with other systems in Samburu County	Early Warning Systems	Information available to alert or warn of an impending drought	Ordinal scale	Descriptive statistics Thematic analysis
To determine use of indigenous knowledge to inform drought management strategies in Samburu County	Indigenous Knowledge	Use of indigenous knowledge	Qualitative	Thematic analysis
Dependent variable	Drought risk	Level of vulnerability Level of resilience	Ordinal scale	Descriptive statistics Inferential  statistics Thematic analysis

 

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction

This chapter outlines the methodology to be used in the study. It describes the type of research design that was used, target population, sample size, sampling design, and finally pre-testing of the research study. It further describes the data collection instruments, procedures that were used in collecting the data, data analysis and presentation of the research findings.

3.2 Research Design

Research design is a comprehensive master plan of the research study to be undertaken, giving a general statement of the methods to be used. The function of a research design is to ensure that requisite data in accordance with the problem at hand is collected accurately and economically. Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) describes research design as an understanding of conditions for collection and analysis of data in a way that combines their relationships with the research to the economy of procedures.

This study employed a descriptive research design. Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) defines descriptive research as a process of collecting data in order to answer questions concerning the current status of the study subject. Descriptive research designs are used in preliminary and exploratory studies to allow researchers to gather information, summarize, present and interpret it for the purpose of clarification.  Borg and Gall (1989) noted that descriptive research is intended to produce statistical information about aspects of education that interest policy makers and educators. This study fits within the provisions of descriptive research design because the researcher employed all the steps of descriptive research in his study on the analysis of best practices in community based disaster risk reduction by looking at a case of drought management strategies in Samburu County.

 

3.3 Study Area

The study was conducted in Samburu county of Kenya. Samburu County an administrative county in the former Rift valley province. Samburu district covers a total land surface of 21,126.5 km2 (21,127km2) and more than three quarters (77.5%) is a low potential rangeland receiving between 250-600mm of rainfall per annum. It boarders Baringo county to the west. Laikipia County to the south, Isiolo County to the East and Turkana County to the Northwest and Marsabit County to the north. The area is extremely remote, with only 7 people per km². Samburu County is sparsely populated with approximately 200,000 people. Samburu district as a whole is classified as being semi-arid to arid, though it has very small pockets of dry sub- humid conditions in the ecological zones LH2 to LH4. Livestock production is the main economic activity in the district. The district fall in drainage areas No.2 –Kerio Valley and No. 5-EwasoNyiro. For river water quality, total dissolved solid (TDS) is high while PH is around neutral. The district is water scarce. Laggas and boreholes are recharged during wet season. During dry seasons these sources recedes drastically and a few potential water points get crowded (Wikipedia, 2014).

 

Land-use low potential rangelands, covering 77.5% of total land surfaces is largely found in Waso, Wamba and Nyiro divisions where land is held under communal tenure and ranch tenure systems. In this rangelands land use is dominated by nomadic pastoralism. The district has about 140, 900Ha (7%) medium to potential land suitable for agriculture. Communal land ownership in the rangelands presents the challenge of overgrazing and its resultant environmental degradation effects.

Livestock is the mainstay of the economy of the county and contributes over 85% of income in the pastoral livelihood zone. The main livestock types found in the county are the indigenous cows, goats, sheep, camels, and donkeys with an estimated population of 184,668 cattle; 387,698 sheep; 550,750 goats; 32,824 camels and 26,822 donkeys according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS 2009 Census) valued at about Kshs 11 billion. The main breeds of cattle kept are the Zebu and the Boran while those of goats include: the Small East African, the crosses of Galla, Torggenburg, German-alpine exotic breeds. Sheep breeds include the Dorpers and the Red Maasai while those of camels include the Somali, the Rendille and Turkana. Land tenure system is mainly communal in pastoral LZ though land adjudication is picking up in agro-pastoral LZ due to favourable rainfall in the LZ with average landholding being 0.4ha.  Out of the total 139,892 ha arable land in the county, which is mainly concentrated in Samburu Central highland, only 4,000 ha and 3200 ha are on food crops and cash crops, respectively. The main food crops grown in this area are maize, beans and wheat. The main cash crops grown are barley and wheat, mainly in large scale farms in Poro.

Samburu County is classified as water deficit area. The county is subdivided into three sub counties; Samburu central, Samburu East and Samburu North. In terms of drainage basin, the county falls under Ewaso Nyiro North Catchment area (ENNCA) in the sense that all its water sources drains into Waso Ngiro river basin.  Apart from the aforementioned river there exists other perennial rivers, but the bulky of the county is criss-crossed by many seasonal rivers (laggas).

In Samburu North sub county, Ng’iro ranges is the main catchment area; with several perennial river originating from the catchment. These includes: – Tuum, Waso Rongai, and Nyiro stream. Matthew ranges is the main catchment area within Samburu East sub county though unsubstantial perennial spring water sources exists. Comparatively Samburu Central has a more perennial and reliable surface water sources with Maralal ridges endowed with good forest cover, being the best catchment area.

3.4 Unit of Analysis and Units of Observation

The unit of analysis for this research was the community based drought management strategies in Samburu County. These units of observation were households in different parts of Samburu County, religious leaders, the Locally Influential Persons (LIPs) or Community Resource Persons (CORPs). They provided the researcher with the quantitative and qualitative data that was analyzed in this research.

3.5 Target Population

Population refers to an entire group of individuals, events, or objects having common observable characteristics (Gay, 1981). According to Gay (1981), target population refers to population to which the researcher wants to generalize the results of the study. Target population is also defined as all the members of a real or hypothetical set of people, events or objects to which a researcher wishes to generalize the results of the research study (Borg & Gall, 1989). The study target population entailed all the 47300 households in Samburu County according to 2009 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics population census survey.

3.6 Sample Size and Sampling Procedure

3.6.1 Sample Size

A sample is a smaller group contained from the accessible population. Each member or case in the sample is sometimes called “respondent” or “interviewees”. If there is no estimate available of the proportion in the target population assumed to have the characteristics of interest, 50% should be used as recommended by Fisher et al (1983). The sample size for this study will be determined by Fischer et al (2002) formula for sample size determination.

According to Mugenda and Mugenda (2003) a large population of over 10,000 requires a formula to come up with the sample. Determining a final population for a large population is assumed to be normally distributed at a confidence interval of 95% or significance interval of 5%. Based on the formula below the minimum target sample for a large population is 96 cases.

The sample for a large population was determined using the formula given as;

n=Z²*p*(1-p)/d²

Where:

n = Sample size for large population

Z = Normal distribution Z value score, (1.96)

p = Proportion of units in the sample size possessing the variables under study, where for this study it was set at 50% (0.5)

d = Precision level desired or the significance level which is 0.1 for the study

The substituted values in determining the sample size for a large population are as follows.

n= (1.96)²*(0.5) (0.5) = 96

(0. 1)²

Therefore, the sample size was 96 households (respondents)

After getting the desired sample (96 households), the researcher used proportionate sampling to ensure presentation in the sample in six selected strata. Lorroki had 6747 households, Kirisia had 16073 households, Wamba had 8470 households, Waso had 4365 households, Baragoi had 6482 household and Nyiro had 5163 households.

Study population=47300

Stratum is six divisions defined: Lorroki=6747 households

: Kirisia=16073 households

: Wamba=8470 households

: Waso=4365 households

: Baragoi=6482 households

: Nyiro=5163 households

Sample size for each Division in Samburu County

1. Lorroki – 6747x 96 /47300 = 14
2. Kirisia – 16073 x 96 / 47300 = 33
3. Wamba – 8470x 96 / 47300 = 17
4. Waso – 4365 x 96 /47300 = 9
5. Baragoi – 6482 x 96 / 47300 = 13
6. Nyiro – 5163 x 96 / 47300 = 10

 

3.6.2 Sampling Procedure

Stratified sampling as noted by Neuman (1993) is a method applied if the population from which a sample is to be drawn does not constitute a homogeneous group, and hence requires comparisons between various sub-groups. Stratified sampling is a method of sampling that involves the division of a population into smaller groups known as strata. In stratified random sampling, the strata are formed based on members’ shared attributes or characteristics. A random sample from each stratum is taken in a number proportional to the stratum’s size when compared to the population. These subsets of the strata are then pooled to form a random sample. The household were randomly selected from Manyattas across each division. Due to high mobility, the scattered nature of settlements in Samburu County and the need to obtain consent from household heads, sampling was limited to accessible households in Manyattas whose owners were willing to participate in the study. The procedure assures the researcher that the sample was representative of the population in terms of certain critical factors that have been used as a basis for stratification. Stratified random sampling was used to obtain respondents from three sub counties namely Samburu East, Samburu North and Samburu West. Respondents were selected proportionately at the division level to ensure equal representation. The sampling frame is presented in Table 3.2 below.

The researcher also used Non-probability sampling method to get information from key informants and FGDs in Samburu County. The key informant comprised of leaders, influential people and head of various county government who gave rich information that greatly added value to the study. The researcher conducted four FGDs who were important in informing the study about the views of other people as a group and interviewed 10 KI.

Sub county	Strata (Division)	Total number of  Households per division	Sample size	Sample % share for household population
Samburu central	Loroki Kirisia	6747 16073	14 33	14.2 34.0
Samburu East	Wamba Waso	8470 4365	17 9	18.0 9.2
Samburu North	Baragoi Nyiro	6482 5163	13 10	13.7 10.9
Total		47300	96	100.0

 

3.7 Data Collection Methods

The researcher used the following methods in this study:

3.7.1 Survey Method

The study used questionnaires to collect data from the sampled household in the three sub counties in Samburu County (Samburu central, Samburu East and Samburu North). The study targeted the household heads who comprised of mother or father or any adult available during data collection exercise. The questionnaire was structured into open ended questions and closed ended questions. The open ended questions generated qualitative data and the closed ended questions generated quantitative data. Questionnaires rating employed Likert scale (Dankit, 2004). Likert scale was used to measure perception, attitude, values and behavior. The rating scale consists of numbers and description which are used to rate or rank the subjective and intangible component in research. The numbers in the Likert scale are ordered such that they indicate the presence or absence of the characteristic being measured.

The questionnaires were administered to the respondents by the researcher. The researcher was aided by research assistants in order to reach all the respondents. The researcher and research assistants visited homesteads and administered the questionnaires to the household or any adult available during data collection exercise. The research assistants were local Samburus which made it easy to translate the questions into local language.

3.7.2 Key Informant Interviews

Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) involved the interview of 10 key informants who were knowledgeable on drought mitigation practices in Samburu County.  KIIs were identified by the researcher, includes  Tourism and trade ministries, Livestock, Agriculture, Meteorology department, 3 Chiefs (1 from each sub-county), Social services, NDMA, NGOs e.g. ACTED, World vision, Ramat ( relief food distributor). Also included were religious leaders, the Locally Influential Persons (LIPs) or Community Resource Persons (CORPs).

KIIs were conducted using a predetermined guide with open-ended questions for specific informants. Key informant interviews are qualitative in-depth interviews with people who know what is going on in the community. The purpose of key informant interviews is to collect information from a wide range of people including community leaders, professionals, or residents who have first-hand knowledge about the community. These community experts, with their particular knowledge and understanding, can provide insight on the nature of problems and give recommendations for solutions.

3.7.3 Focus Group Discussion

FGDs involved administration of small group discussions with members as follows 10 women aged between 30-50 years, 10 ngoliontoi (girls) aged between 12-25 years, 10 morans (boys) aged between 15-25 years, and 10 old-men aged between 55 years and above.  In total 4 FGDs in the three sub- counties were interviewed. Focus group methodology was  useful in exploring and examining what people think, how they think, and why they think the way they do about drought mitigation without pressuring them into making decisions or reaching a consensus. According to Kitzinger (2013: 57), a well-known focus group researcher, the focus group method is an ‘ideal’ approach for examining the stories, experiences, points of view, beliefs, needs and concerns of individuals. The method is especially valuable for permitting the participants to develop their own questions and frame-works as well as to seek their own needs and concerns in their own words and on their own terms.

 

3.8 Instruments of Research

The researcher used the questionnaires; key informants interview guide and focus group discussions guiding questions.

 

3.8.1 Questionnaires

Questionnaire is simply a tool or a research instrument consisting of a series of questions and other prompt for purpose of gathering information from respondents.

 

3.8.2 Key Informants Interview Guide

Key informants interview guide is a research tool and was administered on key informants.

 

3.8.3 Focus Group Discussions Guide

The focus group discussions guide is a series of questions that facilitates discussion for FGDs.

3.9 Validity

Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) indicated that validity determines whether the research truly measures that which it was intended to measure or how truthful the research results are. In other words, does the research instruments allow you to hit “the bull’s eye” of your research project? Researchers generally determine validity by asking a series of questions, and will often look for the answers in the research of others.

Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) describe the validity in quantitative research as “construct validity”. The construct is the initial concept, notion, question or hypothesis that determines which data is to be gathered and how it is to be gathered. They also assert that quantitative researchers actively cause or affect the interplay between construct and data in order to validate their investigation, usually by the application of a test or other process. In this sense, the involvement of the researchers in the research process would greatly reduce the validity of a test. Data quality was incorporated in the entire study process especially at the data collection point to include completeness of questionnaires, legibility of records and validity of responses.

At the data processing point, quality control includes; data cleaning, validation and confidentiality. There are three types of validity which were addressed and stated; Face validity with pre-testing of survey instruments was a good way to increase the likelihood of face validity. Content validity the use of expert opinions, literature searches, and pretest open-ended questions to help establish content validity.

3.10 Reliability

Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) defines reliability as the extent to which results are consistent over time and an accurate representation of the total population under study is referred to as reliability and if the results of a study can be reproduced under a similar methodology, then the research instrument is considered to be reliable.

The most popular methods which were used in estimating reliability is the use of measures of internal consistency. The questionnaire was pre-tested through a pilot test with individuals from similar environment but not part of the sample population in the study to avoid double inclusion of pre-test participants in the main study. Their feedback helped in making vital adjustments to enhance reliability and validity of the study findings. To ascertain the reliability of the data collection instrument, the results of pilot study was examined by professionals co-opted in the study who included other researchers, and the Supervisor and modifications were done based on the responses obtained.

3.11 Data Collection Procedures

The researcher obtained a letter of introduction from the Department of Sociology University of Nairobi.

 

3.12 Ethical Considerations

Kumar (2005) stated that ethics are norms governing human conducts which have a significant impact on human welfare. It involves making a judgment about right and wrong behavior. Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) states that it is the responsibility of the researcher to carefully assess the possibility of harm to research participants, and the extent that it is possible; the possibility of harm should be minimized. The author further states that, the researcher must take all reasonable precautions to ensure that the respondents are in no way directly harmed or adversely affected as a result of their participation in a research project.

The researcher recognized that the issue under study was sensitive because it involves a peculiar negative behavior associated to an individual. Therefore, there was need to protect the identity of the respondents as much as possible. This meant that the questionnaires did not require the respondent’s names or details that might reveal their identity.

Hence the term ethics has something to do with the expected practices of community and its individual members. It describes what a society believes to be right or wrong. In this study, it is ethical to have confidentiality. Confidentiality therefore upheld for all respondents. The names of the respondents were not disclosed.

3.13 Data Analysis

The study collected both quantitative and qualitative data. The quantitative data collected using questionnaires were coded and entered into Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20. SPSS generated descriptive statistics which included frequencies and percentages. The quantitative data was presented using tables and pie charts. Narration was done in prose.

The qualitative data was analyzed using thematic analysis. Thematic analysis is one of the most common form of analysis in qualitative research .It emphasizes pinpointing,examining, and recording patterns (or “themes”) within a data.Themes are patterns across a data set that are important to the description of a phenomenon and are associated to a specific research question.The themes become the categories for analysis.(Guest, Greg(2012).Applied thematic analysis.Thousands Oaks, California Sage. p.11.  Qualitative data were transcribed and key patterns, trends and themes and concepts drawn out to illustrate and explain the issues of drought management in Samburu County.

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA ANALYSIS, PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION

4.1 Introduction

This chapter covers the data analysis and presentation of the research findings. This analysis starts with the general description information on the respondents and then covers the main issues of the study in the subsequent sections.

4.1.1 Response Rate

This study sampled 96 respondents. Questionnaires that were filled correctly and considered for analysis were 62. This translates into a response rate of 65%. This response rate was sufficient and representative and conforms to Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) stipulation that a response rate of 50% is adequate for analysis and reporting; a rate of 60% is good and a response rate of 70% and over is excellent. This commendable response rate was due to extra efforts that were made with regular visits to remind the respondents to fill-in and return the questionnaires making response rate of 65% as shown in Figure 4.1 below.

 

 

 

4.2 Social and Demographic Factors

In order to understand the demographics of the respondents, the study requested information about respondents’ distribution by area, gender, age and duration settled in area.

4.2.1 Respondents Distribution by Area

Respondents were asked to indicate their area for analysis purposes. Findings are presented in the table 4.1 below.

Area		Frequency	Percent
	Baragoi	8	12.9
	Maralal	20	32.3
	Lodo Kejek	9	14.5
	Wamba	17	27.4
	Waso	8	12.9
	Total	62	100.0

 

From the findings majority of Respondents were from Maralal (32.3%), followed by Wamba (27.4%), then Lodo Kejek (14.5%), Baragoi and Waso had the same distribution of (12.9%). Majority of the respondents were from Maralal mostly  because the people in this livelihood zone do not depend solely on pastoralism but do farming as well, they are agro- pastoralists and with good infrastructure therefore getting access to their homes was quite easy and most of the homes were not deserted like in the case of Baragoi area who recorded the least number of respondents because accessing these homes was quite  a challenge and sometimes became difficult, rampant insecurity is very common and mostly the homesteads were deserted and empty.

4.2.2 Respondents Distribution by Gender

Respondents were asked to indicate their gender for analysis purposes. Findings are presented in the table 4.2 below.

Gender		Frequency	Percent
	Male	39	62.9
	Female	23	37.1
	Total	62	100.0

From the findings, majority of the respondents were male (62.9%) as compared to 37.1% of the respondents who were female.

The study captured data from more male because men stay at home as women involve in domestic chores such as fetching water, collecting firewood and building materials.

4.2.3 Respondents Distribution by Age bracket

Respondents were asked to indicate their age for analysis purposes. Findings are presented in the table 4.3 below.

 

Age bracket		Frequency	Percent
	’21-30 years’	4	6.5
	’31-40 years’	19	30.6
	’41-50 years’	18	29.0
	’51 years and above’	21	33.9
	Total	62	100.0

 

From the findings the majority of respondents aged 51 years and above (33.9%), followed by those who aged 31-40 years (30.6%), then those of aged 41-50 years (29%), finally those aged 21-30 years (6.5%). The study established that majority of the respondents were aged between 31 years and above because  young men usually below 30 years of age  go to look for pasture and water for animals and also migrate to other areas with animals leaving behind older men, women and young girls.

4.2.4 Duration Settled in the Area

Respondents were asked to indicate the duration they have settled in the area for analysis purposes. Findings are presented in the table 4.4 below.

Duration settled in the area		Frequency	Percent
	‘5 years and below’	1	1.7
	‘6-10 years’	1	1.7
	’11-15 years’	1	1.7
	Above 20 years	4	6.9
	I was born here	51	87.9
	Total	58	100.0

 

From the findings majority of the respondents indicated that they were born there (87.9%) while 6.9% indicated that they had lived there for above 20 years. Respondents who had lived in the area for 5 years and below were 1.7% while those who had lived in the area for 6-10 years and 11-15 years were also 1.7% of the population each.

Majority of the respondents indicated they were born there and only a few of them who have lived there for 15 years and below, this gave an insight that majority of the respondents understood the area very well, also gave us valuable pieces of information regarding drought and how they have lived in this harsh environmental conditions and survived for long.

 

 

4.3 Community-based Drought Coping Mechanisms

The first objective of the study was to establish the community based drought coping mechanisms in Samburu County. The respondents were asked whether there are drought coping mechanisms that the Samburu people have adapted to deal with drought. The results in figure 4.2 show that majority of the respondents indicated yes (96.8%) as compared to only 3.2% of the respondents who indicated no.

 

The main coping strategies currently employed in the County include Migration, reduction in number and size of meals, sale of charcoal, firewood, domestic borrowing, petty trade, quarry stone mining(Nachola) and fetching water for sale. The common coping mechanisms included reduction in number of meals, skip food consumption for an entire day and purchase of food on credit.

 

4.4 Causes and Impact of Drought

The respondents were asked to indicate the various causes of drought and the study established that drought in Samburu County mainly occur due to lack of rainfall and partly due to human activities. The key informants indicated that lack of adequate rainfall is the major cause of drought in Samburu. Lack of rainfall or precipitation for 6 months to 1 year affects pasture, water points, livestock and the community at large. Lack of rainfall leads to drying up of water points and pasture which affects the health of both animals and people. Drought occur when there is lack of ‘expected’ precipitation. Note that we say ‘expected’ because lack of rain alone does not mean a drought. Some regions can go for months without any rain, and that would be ‘normal’ for them. Farmers plant in anticipation of rains and so when the rains do not come, and irrigation infrastructure is absent, agricultural drought occurs. According to the participants dry season greatly increases drought occurrence, and is characterized by its low humidity, with watering holes and rivers drying up. Because of the lack of these watering holes, many grazing animals are forced to migrate due to the lack of water and feed to more fertile spots.

 

 

Another cause of drought is human activities. Forests (trees) play a key role in the water cycle, as they help reduce evaporation, store water and also contribute to atmospheric moisture in the form of transpiration. This means, cutting down trees (deforestation) in the name of economics, will expose surface water to more evaporation. It will also reduce the ability of the ground to hold water and make it easier for desertification to occur. It can set off drying conditions, especially for smaller water bodies. Cutting down trees is known to reduce a forest’s watershed potential. The respondents also attribute probable causes of drought and its impact to poor coordination of natural resources, overstocking, cultural practices such as holding on to huge herds even when drought is imminent and ignoring traditional drought coping mechanisms.

The data from FGD  ngoliontoi (girls) indicated “that majority of water sources (like springs or wells) ran dry during drought. Some of these springs would only occur during the rainy season”).

The drying out of springs put a lot of pressure on the still existing water resources and boreholes because a lot of people had to move to better water sources and these places were now very crowded. The respondents added that this dry weather and long spells without rain affected their livelihoods, their livestock, vegetation and pasture.  Due to the ensuing decline in water and grass around these boreholes, animals died, herds reduced and animal products got rare. But not only animals died, also people died and many were suffering from hunger and diseases. In recent years the government stepped into action and offered government relief in terms of food, water and other things the people needed. What has helped the Samburu on the one hand has also constrained them on the other. They have reported that they have become so dependent on government relief that they abandoned their own coping mechanisms such as food preservation.

During the FGD one of the participants (a man called Suyuan) said:

“there   are a lot of drought impacts which make us suffer since there is no food and water.”)

Human activities are linked to meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socio-economic environment. Therefore,  any  disruptions  to  hydrological  systems,  such  as  those  caused  by  drought, create a significant risk to human society and their social and economic systems. Trends in the spatial distribution of water,  population  size,  demand  and  competing  uses  all  gain  heightened  significance  and increased stress at times of drought. Droughts have eroded household assets and further reduced the coping mechanisms available to the pastoralist residents of Samburu County.

The study established that drought had a relationship with Poverty. Drought has an effect of lowering productivity and outcome of farming activities. The drought have had severe long-term effects for the Samburu because some water sources ran completely dry and grass, shrubs and trees dried up in some areas. This put a lot of pressure on the still existing water sources and boreholes because a lot of people had to move to better water resources and these places come crowded. Due to the ensuing decline in water and grass around these boreholes, animals die, herds reduce and animal products are rare. People also many suffer from hunger and diseases.

The respondents were further asked to indicate the coping strategies. The study findings in Figure 4.3 shows that Samburu community have applied household food adjustments, reliance on charity, use of social networks, publicly sponsored relief, household expenditure adjustments and livestock migration as community-based drought coping mechanisms.

 

 

 

 

Majority (82%) of the respondents indicated that Samburu community utilized food consumption adjustment as a coping strategy during drought (Figure 4.3).  The community limits consumption of animal produce such as milk and blood.  Food consumption adjustment among Samburu presents a coping mechanisms that is strategically embedded in the indigenous social structures and resource management value systems that enabled the community to cope with the limited food supply during drought. Majority (62.3%) of the respondents indicated that the Samburu community does deplete food or cash savings. The Samburu uses traditional methods of food preservation such as drying meat and grains for future consumption during drought.

The Samburu the community does not rely on coping strategies such as credit facilities  as cash savings, credit as indicated by  68.3% of the respondents because the community does not utilize formal banking systems. Family wealth among the Samburu people is valued in terms of livestock held. The nomadic pastoralist lifestyle among the Samburu does not encourage possession of household assets such as land and other tangible assets. Therefore, liquidation of assets is not a coping strategy during droughts (as indicated by 88.5% of the respondents) because the Samburu community does not have assets for liquidation. Majority (61.3%) of the respondents stated that earning of more wages is not a coping mechanism among the Samburu because Samburu County lacks formal employment and the community mainly rely on pastoralism.

Majority of the respondent’s stated Samburu community cope with drought through social networks (56.5%) and migration of livestock to areas with pasture (91.9%). Samburu have established long distance social networks amongst kin groups and stock friendships in order to be able to move animals to various places with pasture during drought. Movement of herds during drought allows the community to survive drought by allowing dry areas to regenerate when rains resumes. Majority of the respondents (91.3%) stated that they do not sit back and do nothing during drought. Herders put a lot of effort in coping with drought especially through herd mobility. Some Samburu especially those living in Maralal community have adopted crop farming and others have adopted other income generating activities such as mining and tourism.

Results in table 4.5 show that majority of the respondents indicated that the coping strategies in Samburu community have been effective to a moderate extent (77.4%) while 8.1% and 3.2% of the respondents indicated to a great extent and very great extent respectively. Only 1.6% of the respondents indicated that coping strategies used by Samburu community have not been effective at all while 9.7% indicated they have been effective to a little extent. The Samburu Community lives in harsh and very demanding environment and often lives on the brink of survival. In spite of the harsh conditions, the community has managed to cope with drought variability by employing an array of short and long-term strategies that help them cope with recurrent bouts of drought.

Extent of effectiveness		Frequency	Percent
	Not at all	1	1.6
	Little extent	6	9.7
	Moderate extent	48	77.4
	Great extent	5	8.1
	Very great extent	2	3.2
	Total	62	100.0

 

The interviews of the Key informants and focus group discussions revealed the following community-based drought coping mechanisms by the Samburu Community: herd mobility, herd diversification and livelihood diversification. The following sub sections present the findings of the study:

4.4.1 Herd Mobility

The study established that majority of livestock owners in Samburu County rely on access to multiple pastures and water resources due to climatic variability in the region. The mobility of the Samburu community in search of water and pasture is driven by high spatial and temporal variation in rainfall.

One of the key informant (Livestock officer), stated that:

“The pastoralist move from dry areas to areas with pasture and water. In the meantime, the weather patterns changes and the vegetation regenerates in the dry regions and the regions with pasture dry up. This cycle repeats itself and the Samburu community copes with the drought through herd mobility through the seasons.”

Mobility not only allows for the use of productive tracts of land and water, but it also enables previously – inhabited land to rest and recover after utilization, which is an essential component of successful rangelands management (Cossins &Upton 1988). Managed correctly, mobile pastoralism has been proven to be more economically profitable and productive than classical ranching models within paddocked, sedentarised areas (Niamir–Fuller 2005).

The study established that herd mobility in Samburu community involved the movement of livestock alone while the rest of the community staying behind or involved with the movement of the entire community together with livestock.

Data from Focus Group Discussions (Young girls, Ntoyie) indicated that some Samburu community members would only move with their animals but the family would stay at home at the homestead.

A few animals might also stay at home so that the family can get milk or slaughter an animal to get meat. Others mentioned that the entire family would move if there was a severe drought. Whichever form the mobility takes, it usually involved covering relatively long distances depending on the severity of the drought and proximity of the next available drought refuge area.

The respondents cited reduced fluctuations in the productivity of the animals as the major benefit   of herd mobility.

Data from FGD (Young men),

“Movement of herds enable us to protect our animals from adverse effects of drought thus minimize substantial reduction in productivity,”

Besides, one of the key informants (Livestock officer) in Kirisia said:

. “Herd mobility also minimizes death of animals associated with severe malnutrition that accompany drought.”

Herd mobility has been a traditional livestock production strategy in Samburu community and the larger pastoral environment.  Those who have a chance to move frequently from their settlement are expected to save their stock from epidemics and have access to better grazing resource. Most herders opt to move around looking for better pasture to ensure the survival of their animals during drought than immediately selling their cattle. The findings of the study are in tandem with Mogotsi et al, (2012) who argued that herd mobility benefit pastoralists by reducing variance in animal production due to spatial variability in climatic conditions. Similarly, (Ncube, 2010) established that mobility not only allows for the use of productive tracts of land and water, but it also enables previously-inhabited land to rest and recover after utilization.

4.4.2 Herd Diversification

The study established that herd diversification is one of the mechanisms that Samburu community has adopted to cope with drought. Traditionally, the Samburu community kept cattle, goats and sheep. Nevertheless, the nomadic lifestyle of the Samburu community has led to interaction with communities such as Turkana and Somali. The interaction between the nomadic pastoralists has resulted in herd diversification in which Samburu community has adopted donkey and camel keeping. The Samburu community keep a mixture of animal species in order to take advantage of the availability of different plant species in terms of livestock feeding habits, and drought resistance and socio-economic uses. The study findings are in agreement with Boruru et. al., (2011) who established that Samburu people learnt the practice of rearing camels from their Somali neighbours and now use camel in a multifunctional manner including milk and meat production, transportation, provision of blood, and as a source of hides and skins.

Herd diversification has enabled Samburu community to generate a wider variety of livestock products, harvest more of the available forage, use different environmental niches, and generate livestock output in different seasons. The Cattle and sheep are usually less drought resistant as compared to goats, camels and donkey.

A key informant (ACTED) stated that:

“Camels are the herd species most resistant to drought and aid the Samburu community in transportation during movements in search for pasture and water. Several adaptations help a camel save water. Their large feet spreads their weight on the sand when they are walking. When there is food and water, a camel can eat and drink large amounts and store it as fat in the hump. Then, when there is no food or water, the camel uses the fat for energy, and the hump becomes small and soft. It has thick rubbery lips to eat dry, prickly plants and a large, haired tail to swat pests such as mosquitos and flies. It has a long slender neck in order to reach high leaves such as palm trees, and rubbery patches on the belly and knees to protect the skin when kneeling and sitting on the hot sand.”

The respondents stated that camels normally provide milk throughout the year and have the highest market prices.

Data from FGD (men) stated that:

Camel keeping had increased the value of the herd due to increased production of milk, meat, provision of blood, transport, hides and skins.

Figure 4.4 shows that Camels are becoming an important animal among the Samburu. Camels are a source of food, cash income, transport means and have significant cultural functions to pastoral communities. The health-promoting properties of camel milk are a strong boost for sales. Nevertheless, many camels in Samburu are kept under pastoral (nomadic) production systems, characterized by low production inputs and herd/household mobility. This is a subsistence-based system utilizing large mobile herds grazing on vast rangeland pasture resources. There is however a recent emergence of peri-urban camel production system using milking herds grazed within proximity to urban market outlets for milk, meat and stock, where consumers and traders are members of pastoral communities. The market-oriented camel production presents opportunities for poorer households in Samburu County to enhance their food and income securities.

The changes in the composition of herd kept by Samburu community is a coping mechanism against drought but also a pointer towards a less restricted nomadic movement by pastoral groups. Cattle require a greater density of watering points and more reliable watering points than camels.

Data from FGD for (men) One of the respondents stated that:

“While camels can survive on a weekly intake of water, the cattle requires daily intake of water even in the dry seasons.”

Water is essential to life and the camel has often to survive on limited quantities for long periods of time. To do this, it has developed not only a very low rate of water use but mechanism for restricting water loss as soon as its intake is reduced. The hump is mainly comprised of fat and thus the metabolic water content is high. Camels can also survive without water for several weeks because their stomach lining is designed to store ample amounts of water. Under conditions of dehydration and intense heat the camel adopts behavioral mechanisms to conserve energy. The camel sits down in the early morning before the ground has warmed up. It tucks its legs underneath its body so that it absorbs little heat from the ground by conduction. Any heat absorbed from the ground or the sun would have to be dissipated later in the day.

In comparison with the other herd species, especially camels, cattle are restricted to the vicinity of watering points throughout the year. This has implications in terms of reducing both the frequency and geographic spread of pastoral movements in the region. Therefore, the adoption of camel keeping facilitates nomadic movement among the Samburu.

The study findings are in tandem with Boruru et. al., (2011) who established that Samburu have resorted to camel rearing in order to cope with persistent droughts, which their cattle and goats could not survive. The Samburu also prefer camel milk to milk from other livestock because of its taste, nutritious value and for health reasons, arguing that camel milk prevents them from thirst even when walking for a long distance. Boruru et. al., (2011) also established that Camels are also a source of blood that is mixed with milk to form a diet component that is highly nutritious and which is reserved for children, expectant mothers and ailing older people. Moreover, the Samburu use camels as important gifts or loans to relatives and friends especially in times of need, such as during drought periods.

4.4.3 Livelihood Diversification

The study established that Samburu community cope with perennial drought in Samburu County through diversification of livelihood. Traditionally, Samburu have practiced nomadic pastoralism but the emergence of severe drought in the region has facilitated diversification of livelihood to a mixture of agricultural and pastoralist activities. The respondents stated that Samburu communities tend to settle near semi-permanent rivers and springs which has led to small scale diversification into crop farming. The crops grown include maize, beans and vegetables. Samburu community has also diversified livelihood by venturing into agribusiness. The community engages in selling livestock products such as milk, meat, eggs and hides. The community also diversifies its food basket by increasing the number of meals, picking wild fruits and tubers, share food and slaughter weak animals. Samburu also earn money through activities such as making bricks and beads.  They engage in income-generating activities.

 

Bean farming is one of the strategies that communities in Samburu County use to diversify the sources of their livelihoods. Communities in Samburu County farm common beans as a way to build their assets and secure their family needs. The integration of legume crops (common beans) and livestock for soil fertility management through crop rotation, cover crops and manure reduces the dependence on external inputs. Soil fertility improvement through biological nitrogen fixation and because the small scale farmers in Samburu have limited resources and poor access to input markets, organic sources of nitrogen are vital. They improve soil fertility and structure also for crops like maize. Bean farming also act as a source of income to communities in Samburu County who sell beans in local markets. Common beans provide the communities with a good returns on investments as it require less labor and external inputs than many other crops.

World Vision and other partners launched a livelihood improvement initiative, Samburu Pastoralists Livelihood Improvement Project (SAPLIP), aimed at empowering 21,700 people directly and 63, 000 others indirectly in Samburu County. The project is aimed at improving pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood and enhancing food security in the semi-arid Samburu County. SAPLIP was launched on February 27, 2014 as a three-year project that targets communities in Samburu Central Sub-County by reaching them in groups. One such group is Loting Lopanari Youth Group, which has 25 members (13 women and 12 men). SAPLIP enables people to transform their land into green farm growing vegetables such as kale and cabbage. World Vision provide Samburi with farm equipment such as jembes (hoes) and forks.  It also provide groups and individuals with seeds. The Local people have been trained on good farming practices that included proper spacing. The farmers are able plant vegetable for family consumption and for sale.

Overall kales have the potential to transform African economies and contribute to poverty reduction. They also provide a positive spillover effect upon a range of other industries like transport and trade.  Many farmers doing kales farming in Samburu have retained their seed from local varieties from year to year. However, this traditional process carries risk of spreading seed-borne diseases, particularly black rot (bacterial) and Alternaria leaf spot (fungal). A good crop cannot be achieved without viable seed, and yet access to commercial varieties is limited. Most varieties are imported and expensive, and quality is still unreliable.

Beside farming, SAPLIP has a number of initiatives aimed at improving production of poultry and goats; natural resources management promotion- through rainwater harvesting technologies such as water pans, water retention ditches, for use by livestock and crops. The project also promotes planting of multi-purpose trees especially fruit and fodder trees; enhanced farming practice through promotion of a wide range of drought-tolerant crops. A number of groups have been introduced into greenhouse farming with drip irrigation for the production of high value crops such tomatoes.

Samburu Governor Moses Lenolkulal stated that Samburu County government started several projects to change the peoples’ mind-set so that they could stop the reliance on relief food. Samburu County has a total of 139,892 hectares of unexploited arable land the county government bought 26 tractors and provided other inputs such as seeds and fertilizer to ensure that Samburu people invest in crop farming. The government had increased the number of watering points by digging dams, water pans and wells at strategic places to enable people and animals’ access water. Besides, Samburu County government was improving the infrastructure to make sure all roads to the market centres are accessible during the dry and rainy seasons.

Despite the increased efforts to diversify sources of livelihood through crop production, the respondents stated that crop farming has been met with difficulty arising mainly from adverse climatic condition and lack of technical know-how on crop farming.

A Key Informant (a programme officer, SAPLIP project) said:

“Crop farming is limited by severe droughts that have occurred in the last decade and most of Samburu people do not have knowledge on the suitable crops and methods of farming in for the region,”

Expansion of cropland areas in Samburu County often fail owing to overexpansion of inappropriate production technologies into the drylands environment. Increased population pressures and human expansion into drier areas during long wet periods leave an increasing number of people vulnerable to drought. Removing critical production elements from the traditional complex land-use systems through the introduction of irrigated and non-irrigated crops, or the increased industrial and urban use of water, break links in traditional production chains.

One of the reasons why farming in Samburu County has generally been inefficient is the poverty trap. Resource-poor people living in marginal environments in Samburu County try to survive by avoiding damage resulting from hazards. Avoiding risks often entails maximizing the use of labor while minimizing the use of capital-intensive resources as the poor cannot afford to invest sufficiently in their crops or in their natural resource base.

Some farmers who have embraced crop farming have complained that their counterparts from neighbouring Laikipia and Nyandarua are flooding the market with produce even when there is good harvest. Human-animal conflict is a major problem in the county and many farmers have constantly complained of invasion of their farms by wild animals.

The most immediate consequence of drought in Samburu County is a fall in crop production, due to inadequate and poorly distributed rainfall. Farmers are faced with harvests that are too small to both feed their families and fulfill their other commitments. Where crops have been badly affected by drought, pasture production is also likely to be reduced although output from natural pastures tends to be less vulnerable to drought than crop production. In spite of incurred asset shocks such as loss of livestock to drought or disease, farming is not widely practiced by communities in Samburu County due to lack of knowledge, skills and farm input. Moreover, the increase in the number of people pursuing an agricultural livelihood is a source of conflict with sections of pastoral communities who widely practice pastoralism because it may serve as the motivation for people to enclose their land.

 

The study findings on the lack of farming skills among pastoralist communities living in Samburu County are a similar study by Boruru et. al., (2011) who established that the Samburu people also lack knowledge of the right seeds to plant, for example, early maturing crop seed for the short rains. They also lack the resources to take advantage of the right time for planting and to maintain crops and animals through dry spells. The problem of heat stress, lack of water at crucial times and pests compounds the difficulty experienced in crop farming among Samburu people.

The study established that wildlife conservancy is also a major livelihood diversification method in Samburu County. There are three major tourist attractions; The Samburu game reserve which currently worked with Google to make Samburu game reserve visible in google worldwide as far as elephant conservation is concerned, the Buffalo Springs national reserve and the Shaba national game reserve. The Samburu County also host conservancies such as Namunyak, Kalama, Sera, Meibae and Westgate in Samburu East, Ngiro in Samburu North, Ltungai and Malasso in Samburu central and Kirisia. The conservancies have presented the community with new sources of income and a means to cope with the perennial drought in the county. The community participates in wildlife conservation as scouts benefit from revenues collected through community based groups in charge of the conservancies.

Namunyak provides a good example of natural resource management in pastoral livelihood areas. Namunyak means “blessed“in Samburu, and an aerial view of this rangeland makes it easy to see why the name came to mind. It surrounds the Mathews mountain range, a rich expanse of lush indigenous forest which hosts abundant populations of wildlife and rare plant species. Namunyak began as two group ranches, and over 15 years, driven by the need to protect the Mathews range, has expanded to include the four neighbouring group ranches surrounding the Mathews forest. Sarara, Sapache, Ngilai West, Ngilai Central, Ngare Narok and Ndonyo Wuasin group ranches now make up the 394,000 hectare Namunyak Conservancy. It was one of the first community conservancies in northern Kenya to be established, along with Il Ngwesi.

Almost half of all Northern Rangelands Trust (NRT) conservancies are home to Samburu, a semi-nomadic, pastoralist community closely related to the Maasai (NRT, 2007). They have a wealth of knowledge built up through decades of farming the harsh terrains of northern Kenya. But as changing times bring increased pressure on natural resources, grazing cattle has become a volatile livelihood. By joining NRT, pastoralists can combine their traditional knowledge with modern science to more sustainably manage their rangeland, and other members of the community have means of diversifying their income through alternative livelihoods, so as not to rely so heavily on livestock.

As part of NRT’s focus on integrating ethnicities, Namunyak will be one of the 4 community conservancies to hold a sport for peace event, where members from any position of the community can compete and connect with members of the neighboring Borana and Rendille communities.

The introduction of Camel Derby has significantly improved tourism in Samburu County.  Samburu County hosted the 25^th edition of the Maralal Camel Derby in August 2014. Hotels in Samburu County were in full capacity as both locals and international tourists swarmed to the location to witness the races. The Maralal Derby is more than just a race, it’s an entertaining festival of fun and local competition that brings this small desert town to life. The derby was also an opportunity for Samburu County to showcase its culture which it did through a traditional wedding and an initiation ceremony. The event is also used to create peace and harmony with communities in the region who suffer from banditry and cattle rustling.

The study findings on diversification of livelihood are in tandem with Ontita (2012) who analyzed adapting to climate change through a paradigm shift in rural development. In a case study of Westgate Conservancy, Ontita (2012) established that conservancy transcends the traditional agro-pastoral modernization paradigm, which climate change halted. Westgate Community members have fully appreciated and collectively bought into the redefinition of the landscape as a community resource that benefits them. The conservancy has reordered community relations so that members participate in community-wide activities smoothly. This project has enhanced physical security for people, livestock and wildlife, developed tourism and provided social services to the community and is an important adaptation to climate change in the long-term (Ontita, 2012).

The data collected from key informants revealed that Samburu Community is drifting towards mining as a means of livelihood diversification from pastoralism. The major ongoing mining activities in the County are quarrying and sand harvesting. Quarrying is undertaken in Soito area of Baragoi division in Samburu North Sub-county. Sand harvesting activities are undertaken in dry riverbeds neighbouring the main urban centers of Wamba, Maralal and Baragoi. The county is endowed with various mineral deposits. Soda and salt exist in Suguta valley near Lake Logipi, graphite is found in South Horr, while barely, chronicle talc, columbium and titanium are found around Baragoi. Stillimanite is found near Kiengok Hill. In addition, there are scattered deposits of various precious stones including aquamarine, ruby, blue sapphire; garnet and amethyst particular around Barsaloi, South Horr.

The coping mechanisms today differ to some degree from those employed in the past although some are still the same. Some are not feasible anymore, such as free movement, whereas others have survived until today, like digging in riverbeds. As the lives of the Samburu pastoralists have changed a lot over the last years, they are not able to do the things the way they used to. On the other hand new opportunities came up, for example through the introduction of farming. If droughts occur these days, the Samburu are not able to move as freely as they used to due to different reasons. One of these reasons is the demarcation of land that restricts the Samburu in their movements. The movement of animals does still take place today during droughts, but only the animal’s move with a herder. Formal education as well has made the Samburu settle more because the children now go to school, so the families also stay.

Moreover, the farming that has started in some areas restricts movement because they don’t want to abandon their fields. Although the farming restricts the movement of the families during dry times, it also helps them to survive these periods. They can still grow food and preserve it for the dry season and this is a new way of food preservation. With farming they can grow their own food and do not rely on help from the government or other organizations. According to the participants, they store the farm products now in granaries. Wheat farming constitute an important source of livelihood diversification in Poro in Samburu Central. Large tracks of land are leased for wheat farming. Wheat farming has provided a source of employment for many residents of Poro.

The access to water these days has also changed during droughts. Traditionally they moved but as already described, this is often not an option anymore. They still dig holes and wells in dry times and the women in Kirisia mentioned that there is a spring close by that does not dry up. What is new these days is the usage of tanks that have been put up or pipes. The idea of rain water harvesting has also come up over the past time. Rain water is collected during rainy season and stored in tanks or dams are constructed to keep the water in the area.

Animals are not only eaten during drought but also sold nowadays and these thus fulfill their function as savings. With that money the families can get food and other things they lack. Some people have found other ways of securing their daily income during drought. They burn charcoal or timber from the forest and sell it on the markets. This does certainly also happen throughout the year as a source of income, but is more prominent during dry seasons when additional income is needed to buy food. As also stated above, dry seasons can have a negative natural impact on the size of the forest. If the forest is used even more because of animals feeding and as an alternative income source, a severe drought can really damage part of the forest.

The study findings revealed that Samburu have developed several ways of surviving during drought. But new things from outside like formal education, the demarcation of land and access to new markets have put constraints on the effectiveness of these mechanisms and opened up new sources of income generation. In a new environment the Samburu need to find out which of their mechanisms still work well today and can be passed on to the next generation and which are simply not feasible anymore.

4.5 Community-based Drought Preparedness

The respondents were asked whether there are any preparations by Samburu community on how to deal with drought. Majority of the respondents (82.3%) indicated there are preparations to deal with drought as compared to 17.7% who indicated they do not have any (see figure 4.6).

The researcher wanted to know the community based preparedness strategies that have been adopted by Samburu people in anticipation of drought. Many of the respondents cited destocking, sinking of boreholes, and migration. A few respondents cited reserving grazing areas and saving money for the dry season.

The Samburu people in northern Kenya do not have access to clean, safe drinking water. Women and girls often walk up to 12 miles a day in search of water. The Samburu Project is a community based grassroots projects that works directly with the Samburu community. The Samburu Project offers a simple solution to an extraordinary problem by providing easy access to water to these communities through our well drilling initiatives. Since its inception in 2005, The Samburu Project has drilled 83 wells bringing clean, safe drinking water to over 80,000 people. The Samburu Project collaborate with local hydrologists to identify well sites and construct well that are easily maintained by local communities. The wells are shallow (approximately 70meters) and are fitted with hand pumps. The Samburu Project trains the community in maintenance of the wells.

The respondents were asked to indicate the preparedness strategies that are used in Samburu. Progressive and selective destocking, contingency plans either to reduce livestock numbers and hence grazing pressure, progressive and selective reduction of grazing pressure on pastures, herd diversification and livelihood diversification were used as preparedness strategies by Samburu community. The results are shown in figure 4.7.

Majority (91.4%) of the respondents indicated that Samburu community has adopted livelihood diversification as a drought preparedness strategy. The respondents stated that Samburu have diversified sources of livelihood by practicing crop farming especially higher altitudes such as Maralal, mineral mining, and tourism through conservancies. Livelihood diversification presents alternative sources of income and food which Samburu rely on during drought. Similarly, Samburu Community has adopted herd diversification (indicated by 93.5% of the respondents) as a drought preparedness strategy. Diversification of livestock is evident in the adoption of camel keeping. Camels are resistant to drought and survive in little water intake. The camels provide milk and transport during drought and serves as tourist attraction as demonstrated by the recently held Camel Derby held in Samburu County.

The study established that Samburu community also prepare for drought through practices such as progressive and selective destocking, contingency plans either to reduce livestock numbers and hence grazing pressure, progressive and selective reduction of grazing pressure on pastures. These strategies enable the community to exercise best practices in livestock keeping that facilitates preparedness for drought.

The researcher sought to know the extent to which preparedness strategies were successful. Results in table 4.6 show that majority of the respondents indicated that preparedness strategies were successful to a moderate extent (71%) while 17.7% indicated to a great extent. Only 4.8% of the respondents indicated that preparedness strategies were not successful at all while 6.5% indicated they were successful only to a little extent.

Success of Preparedness Strategies		Frequency	Percent
	Not at all	3	4.8
	Little extent	4	6.5
	Moderate extent	44	71.0
	Great extent	11	17.7
	Total	62	100.0

 

4.6 Community-based Drought Mitigation Strategies

Respondents were asked whether there were drought mitigation strategies used in Samburu. Results in figure 4.8 show that majority of the respondents indicated yes (98.3%) as compared to 1.7% who indicated no.

 

 

Respondents were asked to indicate the measures that the Samburu community have put in place to ease effects of drought. Many of the respondents cited conservation, use of dams and tanks to conserve water, adopting subsistence farming, agro-pastoralism, and irrigation. Key informants added that splitting of herds is done to minimize risk, mobilizing resources through social networks, and opting to work for food.

The researcher sought to know the extent to which mitigation strategies are helpful in easing severity of drought. Majority of the respondents indicated that mitigation strategies are helpful in easing severity of drought to a moderate extent (72.6%) while as 3.2% and 8.1% of the respondents indicated to a great extent and very great extent respectively. Only 1.6% of the respondents indicated that mitigation strategies are not helpful at all in easing severity of drought while 14.5% of the respondents indicated they were helpful only to a little extent (see table 4.7).

Extent of helpfulness		Frequency	Percent
	Not at all	1	1.6
	Little extent	9	14.5
	Moderate extent	45	72.6
	Great extent	2	3.2
	Very great extent	5	8.1
	Total	62	100.0

 

Drought impacts and losses can be substantially reduced if authorities, individuals and communities are well prepared, ready to act and equipped with knowledge for effective drought management. Therefore, the goal of mitigation and preparedness is to reduce impacts of drought, reduce vulnerability and foster drought resilient societies (Ncube, 2010).

4.6.1 Interventions by Government and Supporting Institutions

The study established that drought mitigation in Samburu County involves interventions and practices applied by government and other supporting institutions, including NGOs and private sector at different times of the drought cycle to help affected communities to cope. Government and supporting institutions are involved in promotion of water harvesting and storage, food security and nutrition, livestock production, animal health and crops production.

The respondents stated that promotion of water harvesting and storage is achieved through development of new water sources, deepening wells, disilting pans, protection of strategic wells, repairing poorly working boreholes. The government and other supporting institutions promote water supply, strive to keep strategic watering points functional and monitor water availability. The government also encourages improved water pans and develops new ones through food for work or cash for work

The study established that government and other supporting institutions mitigate drought by enhancing food security and nutrition. The government and other supporting institutions promote animal production and cultivation of drought resistant crops and improve extension services. Livestock production is enhanced through conservation and protection of pasture using traditional rules and range management approaches, control breeding, provision of emergency water and feed especially for lactating and breeding animals. The government also promotes animal health through vaccination, cross border disease monitoring, emergency disease control, targeting drought prone animals (calves, lactating, sick) for special treatment.

The policy status in the East African region is rather differentiated. Countries like Kenya are coming up with strong policies to integrate drylands and pastoralism into the mainstream economy. This can be seen in the Vision 2030 which includes arid and semi-arid lands’ unique needs and in the establishment of a Ministry of State for the Development of Northern Kenya and Other Arid Lands. In East Africa, the East Africa Protocol on Environment and Natural Resources, the East Africa Climate Change Policy and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) Livestock Policy Initiative are some of the key instruments providing positive guidelines on pastoral issues (Davies et al., 2012). Though a mix of sometimes contradicting policies and laws can be found at the country level, the mere presence of positive policies is an improvement over the lack of or inappropriate policies that were common in the region in the past ten or so years.

In terms of economic development planning, pastoralists have started to be recognized, and the need for special attention to dryland development is also captured. The ambiguity and mixed nature of policy and policy statements, however, indicate that not all key actors in the policy arena have been reached and that a lot more needs to be done to convince all policy makers that pastoralism is sustainable and economically viable (Davies et al., 2012). In addition, many policies do not have the strategies for implementation, and when they do, there is no guarantee of budgetary allocation nor a clear plan for implementation at different levels (local and national).

Policy has implications for the use and management of the rangelands. Policies can either support or constrain the interaction between pastoralism and biodiversity conservation (Manzano, 2012). The policy environment in Eastern Africa has tended to be inappropriate for the proper functioning of the positive relationship between pastoralism and biodiversity conservation. Numerous policies exist but are often uncoordinated even within sectors and fall short on their evidence base (Chabari 2009) In addition, these policies are often not implemented.

In 2014 the Green Belt Movement began a new project using permaculture. Permaculture, according to one of the key informants “permaculture is primarily a thinking tool for designing low carbon, highly productive ways of living”. Working with communities to design and integrate ecological knowledge into their daily activities help the pastoralists of Samburu to cope better with the impacts of climate change. Green belt movement have been able to initiate 3 demonstration sites in Tamiyoi, Baawa and Poro in the Kirisia ecosystem as a climate change adaptation measure. The permaculture initiative is supporting 45 Samburu community members with practical training which includes sustainable agricultural practices, post-harvest management, pest control, value addition and simple water harvesting techniques.

Permaculture makes it  possible to grow food, trees and fodder while enhancing water quality and abundance, increasing bio-diversity, conserving soil and increasing community food security, health and agricultural productivity. Permaculture has introduced a more sustainable farming approach that will enable communities to produce food crops and livelihoods despite the increasingly variable rainfall. The community members start by selecting food crops that they are willing to plant and that can withstand challenging climate. Also, by learning post-harvest land management techniques they will be able to harvest fodder to be used during dry seasons.

The key informants described drought mitigation in the context of NGOs in Samburu County. ACTED is an NGO working in 38 countries in the world among them Kenya.

In 2013  ACTED supported disaster preparedness and resilience building activities in the most vulnerable arid and semi- arid counties of Kenya including Mandera, Turkana, Samburu, Baringo and West Pokot. Through community- driven approaches, ACTED facilitated the formation of 45 Community Disaster Management Committees who were trained on hazard and vulnerability analysis then later developed Community Disaster Management plans. These plans are now being integrated into the county level contingency planning processes. Each community group was also supported in identifying and implementing a community disaster mitigation project (e.g improved goat species, cross- breeding, camel stocking, underground tank construction and irrigation) through disbursement of grants by ACTED.

According to ACTED, forming resource management committees at the community level would form a sustainable plan for the current drought disaster. Conservancy management and formation community contingency plans would form a sustainable plan for the current drought disaster. It is also important to sink more boreholes, reduce migration, supplement grazing pastures and diversify herds by keeping drought resistant animals like the camel.

ACTED also advocates for Community Disaster Management Committee (CDMC) through participatory disaster risk assessment. This identifies the hazards that different areas in the county face. According to ACTED, Samburu East area comprising of Nolotoro, Ngilai, Swari, Lkisin, and Golgoltim is faced by drought. In Samburu North area comprising of Nachola and Masikita there is conflict while Latakweny and Lesirikan have drought.

There are projects at the community level supported by ACTED. At Tuum, there is a project for improving local goats in order to increase milk and meat through cross-breeding. There is a similar project at Ngilai seeking to improve local goats to enhance food security. At Latakweny, there is a project for promoting camel rearing to mitigate effects of drought.

According to the responses from the field, it emerged that most Samburus collaborate with SAPLIP (Samburu Pastoralist Livelihood Improvement Project” of World Vision Kenya). The aim of this institution is to raise the standard of living in Samburu society and to find complementary ways of coping mechanisms. Under the institution, the Samburu’s indigenous knowledge should be implemented in the project to involve the community’s interests and experiences. The basic component of any country’s knowledge system is its indigenous knowledge. It encompasses the skills, experiences and insights of people, applied to maintain or improve their livelihood” (World Bank 2013).

The SAPLIP project is aimed at improving pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood and enhance food security in the semi-arid Samburu County. EU funding has enabled excavation of Lariakorok water pan in Kisima location in Lorroki division in Samburu central and this is supporting 400 households and about 7,000 livestock. Overall, six water pans have been excavated under the  SAPLIP project to facilitate rainwater harvesting and 3,000 households and 25,000 livestock now have access to water.

4.6.2 Emergency Food Relief

The study established that emergency relief is one of the major short-term drought mitigation strategies in Samburu County.  The respondents indicated that the main types of emergency interventions provided include: food relief for affected people with special food formulas for most affected (children, elderly and mothers), human disease control and treatment, animal feed and supplements, water for human and livestock, cash transfer, food/cash for work/assets, livestock disease control (vaccinations against common diseases and mass treatment), shelter, destocking, restocking, supplementary feeding for livestock especially the breeding stock, rehabilitation of water points.

 

Food aid was very a popular drought mitigation strategy since the majority of the households receive food hand-outs during drought times when there are food shortages. The respondents stated that the most vulnerable households have benefitted from food aid in Samburu. Both government of Kenya and local voluntary organizations made a valuable contribution to the overall relief efforts. They mostly concentrated on food-for-work programs, food distribution, and distribution of seed during the recovery period. The households work in food-for-work programs while increasing food availability and reducing drought impacts.

A key informant (The manager, RAMAT, an NGO that supplies and distribute relief food in Samburu County) pointed out that:

“The drought mitigation strategies were generally not effective in reducing food shortages and hunger. Recurrent droughts exacerbate the rural poverty since NGOs and the Government provides food handouts which are effective only during drought times while leading to dependency syndrome among households. Food aid reduces the extent of hunger and starvation although some of the respondents stated that they face challenges in accessing the aid. Some of the respondents argued that the programme sometimes benefits the most vocal people in the ward leaving out the vulnerable groups. Most of the food for work programs is not sustainable due to lack of integration and cooperation among stakeholders and the households. There is lack of creativity and willingness to work in projects so this will result in inefficiency of the programs.”

The lack of effectiveness and sustainability of relief food to Samburu communities in need of assistance can be associated with fear of creating a dependency syndrome. The primary concerns are that beneficiaries will lose the motivation to work to improve their own livelihoods after receiving benefits, or that they will deliberately reduce their work efforts in order to qualify for the transfer. Governments and development actors use such concerns to justify introducing safety net programs in the form of food for work programs, which aim to support chronically food-insecure households in Samburu County.

The respondents also stated that emergency food relief were benefitting from institutions to a lesser extent since most of the assistance is helpful in the short run just after drought but in the long run there are persistent food shortages. Respondents also cited that selection of beneficial to be incorporated in drought mitigation strategies is usually done by the most vocal persons. Consequently, corruption and favoritism make only a few to benefit from the programs done by agencies. The vulnerable households usually suffer the most if they are not included in the programme.

At the national level, responses, particularly with regard to food aid deliveries, are often delayed because of a lack of ready funding and the customary but time-consuming approach of raising relief finance through appeals on a case-by-case basis as each emergency arises.

There is need to create dependable social safety nets.  Social safety nets which ensure that those without access to food are adequately fed are needed for entire communities in times of drought. Moving away from free food aid distribution to alternative measures, especially for able-bodied adults and their families, helps to strengthen household livelihoods, improve overall nutrition and contribute to self-reliance. To the extent that safety nets reinforce traditional community-based systems for protecting vulnerable members, they are likely to prove more sustainable than ones driven from outside the community.

Labour-based interventions. Food-and cash-for-work programmes in Samburu County give laborers an income in times of drought and also build up local physical and social assets. Although such programmes are now quite common, their coverage is too limited to form a comprehensive safety net, especially for those in marginal and pastoral areas. It is important to forge public-private-NGO partnerships for such activities, so as to broaden their coverage in ways that do not induce excessive dependence. In addition to the construction of local roads, schools or clinics, for example, this sort of programme could include interventions aimed at restoring the natural resource base. Activities such as tree planting, natural agroforestry and area closure could improve the environment and have benefits in Samburu County.

4.6.3 Farming Drought Resistant Crops

The respondents stated that Samburu community has been venturing into crop farming.  The respondents stated that Samburu communities tend to settle near semi-permanent rivers and springs which has led to small scale diversification into crop farming. Drought resistant crops are deemed less effective, since access to the crops is still very limited among households. Data from FGD (Men) indicated that” there are no sufficient production of drought resistant crops such as maize, sorghum and millet.”

The indigenous communities grow maize, beans and various traditional vegetables. Lacking an irrigation scheme, the farmers often find their crops succumbing to the harsh climate. Samburu people need education on the idea of growing fodder during the rainy season and storing it for sale during the dry season. This can markedly improve household and food security for families.  Successful dry land farming requires the integrated management of soil, water, crops and plant nutrients. Small-scale, resource-poor, usually subsistence-based farmers operate and survive in these varied, changeable and hazardous environments by being able to manage the multiple risks through diversification, flexibility and adaptability.

Millet, the most inherently drought-tolerant of all the major staples, together with sorghum, are key cereal grain crops in the drylands, providing food, feed and, in the case of millet, fuel and construction material as well. Early maturing varieties of these crops are useful for helping dryland communities get through the dry season. There is a need to promote the production of food crops such as cow peas and cassava which will also see farmers benefit from drought-resistant crops.

The inability to produce enough food in the face of environmental degradation and external shocks, such as recurrent drought, and the limited possibilities for other livelihood opportunities and the resulting need for seeking additional support for communities living in Samburu County. Low agricultural productivity in Samburu County indicates the inability of both central and county governments’ food security strategy in introducing innovative technologies that address underlying food production failures. The major structural problems responsible for the persistence of food insecurity, namely poor soil fertility, environmental degradation, population pressure and lack of income-generating opportunities outside of agriculture, have not been addressed. A similar finding was found by Chazovachii et al., (2010), there is no sufficient production of drought resistant crops and people in dry areas still rely on livestock produce.

Regarding the future direction of agriculture in Samburu, intensive farming is sought in order to effectively utilize limited water resources and limited high-quality arable land in arid regions.      For instance, the introduction of intensive horticultural technologies will be an important task.    These offer an alternative way of utilizing vast areas of land for extensive agriculture.    In this case, generally in arid regions, an increased percentage of land is used for livestock breeding when agricultural production becomes difficult. It is necessary, especially in arid regions, to plan and implement projects that harmonize agriculture, forestry and fisheries, including livestock breeding.

4.6.4 Selling of Livestock

Samburu people also sell their livestock during drought. The money sold is used to purchase other food such as maize and beans.  However, Key informant (Tourism and trade) stated that “this strategy has not been very effective because it is not profitable during drought times”. Drought affect farmers through livestock death since the distances to water sources increases for the animal and the animal feed (pastures) will be withered. “The poor and most vulnerable do have no cattle or herds that are too small to allow them to destock”.

The geographic location and remoteness of the Samburu County renders selling of animals ineffective because people cannot access market. The poor road networks and communication networks makes the area inaccessible as the roads are very poor such that traders from other parts of the country shun away remote areas of Samburu County. This isolation due to a lack of infrastructure limits mitigation strategies during times of drought.

To give pastoralists both security and incentive, the ‘Livestock to markets’ (LTM) program is rolled out in several conservancies including Namunyak. This is an innovative approach to the marketing challenges faced by pastoralists in the region. Herders often trek cattle for days to market, only for transporters to pay poor prices for low- grade livestock. The LTM program provides an alternative market, paying fair prices, purchasing directly from the conservancies, and buying selectively to reward good conservancy performance .This market aims to incentivize conservancies to practice effective, transparent governance and sustainable natural resource management by linking local livestock owners in high performing conservancies to ready markets.  So far (from 2011 up to 2014) direct purchase of livestock put 168.5 million Kenyan Shillings (approximately 1.75 million USD) in the hands of over 2,000 pastoralists.

4.7 Comparison of Early Warning Systems

The respondents were asked to indicate whether there is information available to alert Samburu 4*people of an impending drought. Results in figure 4.9 show that majority of the respondents indicated yes (82.3%) as compared to 17.7% of the respondents who indicated no.

The researcher sought to know whether the information available to alert Samburu people is helpful to the community or not. Majority of the respondents indicated yes (50.9%) it was helpful while 49.1% of the respondents indicated no it was not helpful (see figure 4.10).

The respondents were asked why information has not been helpful to the community. Many of the respondents cited lack of information, lack of access to available information and high illiteracy levels. A few respondents indicated that there is lack of awareness on importance of such information and early warning systems.

The respondents were asked to rate the extent that the information available have been helpful to the community. Results in table 4.8 show that majority of the respondents indicated that information available has been helpful to a little extent (67.7%) while 6.5% of the respondents indicated that it has not been helpful at all. Only 8.1% of the respondents indicated that information available has been helpful to a very great extent while 17.7% of the respondents indicated that the information available has been helpful to a moderate extent.

Majority of the respondents indicated that information available has been of little help because the community access to this information has been difficult owing to the high levels of illiteracy, poor infrastructure and remoteness of the area, inadequate communication systems and low government capacity and political marginalization.

Extent of helpfulness		Frequency	Percent
	Not at all	4	6.5
	Little extent	42	67.7
	Moderate extent	11	17.7
	Very great extent	5	8.1
	Total	62	100.0

 

4.7.1 Indigenous Early Warning Systems

The respondents were asked whether Samburu Community use indigenous early warning systems. The results in figure 4.11 show that 65.3% of the respondents indicated that Samburu Community use indigenous early warning systems while 34.7% indicated they do not use indigenous early warning systems.

The researcher wanted to know these specific indigenous Early warning Systems from those who indicated that Samburu Community use indigenous Early warning Systems. They cited forecasting by their traditional astronomers from flowering plants. If some species of tree fail to flower or if the leaves do not turn green after flowering, this is an indication of the approach of drought. Other warning signs and signals include: trees shading leaves, drying up of water sources, appearance of certain stars, presence of some birds and also flies, internal and external conflicts.

Key informant (meteorological officer) said that:

“Traditional astronomers use the position of the stars to predict the future as well as forecasting from animal behavior. The belly of a freshly- slaughtered goat, for instance, usually the position of the intestine or the colour of the organs is read to predict the future.”

Forecasts from traditional astronomers are crucial to the Samburus in preparation for an oncoming drought. Data from focus group discussions agreed with this information adding that traditional forecasting was more accurate before introduction of modern technology led to sidelining these indigenous Early warning Systems.

Data from FGDs (old men, Lpayiani) indicated that the Samburus pointed out some kind of early warning system that they use to predict. “There were times when Samburus slaughtered goats or sheep and there are people who can tell by looking at the intestines that something is going to happen, that drought is coming. If you look at the intestine, you have the blood capillaries like a map, the way the pattern is”.

 

Another way to predict a drought was the movement of butterflies or insects in general. “There is also a way in which when you see butterflies, see a lot of butterflies flying in one direction; it’s a sign of either, a sign of drought. See the leaves maybe or the trees falling off and then you see thousands of butterflies flying around”. You know that it is either drought or something coming up.

The look at the stars and the moon can be a different way of predicting the advance of a dry season. Specific people have that knowledge and it is being passed on from one generation to another. It was mentioned by the FGD (old men, Lpayiani) that these predictions are still being done today.

 

Harnessing synergy between traditional and scientific knowledge systems help Samburus to use seasonal forecasts as a tool for improving crop strategies. It provide an opportunity for farmers to explain to meteorologists what seasonal climate information they most needed. When communicated in accessible and comprehensible ways, seasonal climate forecasts provide valuable knowledge that help Samburus make important decisions about the likelihood of a drought.

 

­4.7.2 Availability of Water

Availability of water is also a warning indicator for drought. Water is very important for the Samburu and they use it for different purposes. First of all they need it for domestic use such as cleaning, washing, bathing, drinking and cooking. But also the livestock needs water to drink and the plants need to be watered. Main sources of water for domestic and livestock in the county include seasonal rivers, boreholes, dams/pans, natural rivers and shallow wells. The insufficient rains received did not recharge these water sources fully, hence acute and chronic water shortage persisted in some pockets of the Pastoral livelihood zone especially Samburu East sub-county. The average household water usage stands at 10-20 liters of water per day, which is below the normal household usage of 30-35 litres per during this period of the year. The current water sources will sustain both livestock and households for the next 2 months. Additionally, Water trucking is on- going in some areas and in many schools even within the Agro pastoral land.

Distances to water points for both households and livestock increased compared same period last year.  Households trekked 5-14 km to main water sources compared 3-8 km over the same period last year. This was attributed to a dry spell that persisted over the reporting period. Return household distance was 14.3, and 7.3 km at Lodung’okwe and Nachola sentinel sites that constitute part of pastoral land. Loosuk sentinel site recorded 5.2 km, the highest household distance attained in the Agro pastoral land for the past three years and especially during the usual peak of the long rains. Increased distance to water sources coupled with unavailability of the resource enhanced crowding at water sources and waiting time.

The access to water has changed over time and some of the old resources are not available anymore. It was reported especially by the FGDs women that” some resources went dry and that the water level is getting lower every year”. All groups could agree that they perceive droughts or the change of the rainfall pattern as the main reason for the running dry of water resources. Many participants also mentioned that cutting down of trees has caused less rainfall in the area. Concerning this issue, FGDs(women) in Lorroki noted that “up the hill where there is still forest, there is rain. But down where they live, there is no water resources”. A rather new phenomenon that has led to pollution of the water is the usage of fertilizer, especially in large scale farming. Figure 4.12 shows a dry river bed in Pura, Loosuk, Samburu West:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The dry river bed in Pura, Loosuk, Samburu West (Figure 4.13) indicate that persistent drought in Samburu renders many rivers dry and lead to shortage of water both for animals and domestic use. When the rivers dry up, pastoral community have to trek for long distance in search for other sources of water. In addition to water shortage to cattle and human beings wildlife is also adversely affected. Wildlife serves a source livelihood especially Samburu East where there are game lodges and reserves. Therefore, the death of wildlife economically disempower communities which rely on tourism as a source of income.

One participant said that: “When they started now farming, large scale, and they are using no rain water because they have no forest. The over- and the high population numbers of livestock in the area have also contributed, according to the participants, to the change of the fertilizer it is not clean right now.”

The FGDs (women) showed that many new mechanisms of getting water have come up over the last years. Water is very important to the Samburu and their more sedentary lifestyle, as well as the introduction of agriculture, put even more constraints on the existing water resources. With the possibility of even more variability and uncertainty in rainfall in the future, new ways of storing and preserving water are essential for the survival of the Samburu.

The traditional water sources were primarily springs and wells and it was reported by FGD (women) that the water was fetched with gourds. The children and youth named additional traditional water resources such as dams, rivers, spring, ponds, lakes, boreholes and oases. This might be due to the fact that they don’t really know which water sources are rather new and which were only there in the past. Upon being asked where people get water from today all groups could name different ways of getting water. Wells and springs are still being used, as well as rivers and dams. New ways of getting water is storing water in tanks and using boreholes, taps, pipes or pumps. What participants from all age groups mentioned was rain water harvesting. When it rains, the rain water is collected, e.g. from the roof, and stored in a tank for later use.

4.7.3 Non- Indigenous Early Warning Systems

Respondents were asked whether Samburu Community use non-indigenous early warning systems. Results in figure 4.13 show that majority of the respondents (75.1%) indicated that Samburu Community do not use non-indigenous early warning systems as compared to 24.9% who indicated that Samburu Community use non-indigenous early warning systems.

 

 

 

 

 

The researcher wanted to know the non-indigenous Early warning Systems used by Samburu Community.

A key informant said (NDMA):

“that there is an Integrated Drought Information System (IDIS) with specific indicators monitored to foretell impending drought.”

This IDIS depends on incidences reported in different parts of the county. The data collected is stored in a database and analyzed to indicate level of drought risk. Access to this information is however limited as not anybody can analyze and interpret the information collected. It requires expertise to analyze, interpret and disseminate information. Other tools that may provide drought early – warning signals include field monitoring and remote sensing systems .Ideally, field monitoring should provide monthly flows of information on the availability of water and the general state of crop and livestock production. Useful production parameters include marketing trends particularly the balance of trade between livestock and grain foods, and anthropomorphic measures such as the mean arm circumference of children under five.

 

Each livelihood zone is assessed through a decision tree built around three primary decision points which will distinguish between the five early warning phases. The decision rules at each decision point will be based on the three categories of indicators-biophysical conditions (BC), social–economic effects(SEE), and activation of coping strategies(CS) (Samburu County Drought Contingency Plan, 2014).

When the respondents were asked to compare indigenous and non-indigenous early warning systems, they indicated that non-indigenous early warning systems are superior due to technological advancement and the training of professionals involved in it. They also indicated that to some extent, indigenous early warning systems are important but have been largely ignored by the community. Key informant (Meteorology) agreed with this sentiment and indicated that elements of indigenous early warning systems are critical but implementation framework for the two types of early warning systems has been difficult.

Data from FGD (old men) indicated that” their fore fathers used indigenous early warning systems and they could foretell drought and hence people were prepared when the drought came”. This was a communal affair but the non-indigenous early warning systems require expertise which is not there among the community members. It was revealed that many of the expertise in non-indigenous early warning systems are from outside Samburu Community (Exogenous).

Early warning systems have an important role to play in disaster preparedness, during emergency relief and as part of long-term solutions. Meteorological information can be particularly useful for farmers and pastoralists. Computer-based predictions of droughts and floods can now give several months’ notice and enable farmers to take pre-emptive action to minimize the impact of such events. It is therefore essential that national and regional policies for the planning and management of disaster early warning and preparedness be put in place, through restructuring and refocusing existing early warning systems, improving the accuracy and policy relevance of early warning system outputs and making meteorological information available to farmers and pastoralists in a timely way.

 

Early warning systems also provide information that allows the planning of relief interventions. High priority should be given to providing coverage of pastoral and agropastoral populations and to strengthening and rehabilitating meteorological networks. The main immediate concern to be addressed is the weak link between the information generated by the early warning systems and the capacity to act on it. Part of the problem stems from the many different messages emerging from the early warning systems, but at both the national and the regional levels there are weaknesses in the institutional arrangements that bring together governments and donors for decision-making on required interventions with ample lead times. In the longer term, there will be a need to invest in systems that improve the accuracy of predictions by taking advantage of emergent information-sharing and communications technologies.

4.8 Application of Indigenous Knowledge in the Drought Management Strategies

The respondents were asked whether Samburu Community has applied indigenous knowledge in drought management strategies. The results in figure 4.14 show that majority of the respondents (52.2%) indicated that Samburu Community has not applied indigenous knowledge in drought management strategies while 48.8% indicated that Samburu Community has applied indigenous knowledge in drought management strategies.

 

 

 

 

According to key informants, drought can be managed through linking traditional (indigenous) and modern systems, proper management of natural resources such as land through capacity building with the help of central government, county government and Non-Governmental Organizations. Failure to this, Samburu community will experience the impact of drought which include land degradation, upsurge of diseases and conflict because of scarce resources.

Respondents were asked to rate the level of vulnerability of Samburu people to drought. Results as shown in table 4.9 indicate that majority of the respondents’ rated Samburu people’s vulnerability to drought as very high (82.3%) while 16.1% of the respondents rated it as high. Only 1.6% of the respondents rated the level of Samburu people’s vulnerability to drought as moderate.

Level of Vulnerability		Frequency	Percent
	Very high	51	82.3
	High	10	16.1
	Moderate	1	1.6
	Total	62	100.0

The respondents were asked to explain Samburu people’s vulnerability to drought. Many of the respondents pointed out that the Samburu community is over reliant on pastoralism and when animals are hit by drought the whole community is left vulnerable. This leads to fragile stock, death of livestock, skipping of meals, and malnutrition. Drought causes shortage of water and makes the little available resources to be under immense pressure. It also reduces soil erosion and lead to land degradation.

The researcher sought to know the level of resilience of Samburu people to drought. Results in table 4.10 show that majority of the respondents indicated very low (50.8%) while 37         .7% of the respondents indicated resilience as low. Only 11.5% of the respondents rated level of Samburu people’s resilience to drought as moderate.

Level of Resilience		Frequency	Percent
	Very low	31	50.8
	Low	23	37.7
	Moderate	7	11.5
	Total	61	100.0

The respondents were asked to explain level of Samburu people’s resilience. Respondents pointed out that due to lack of alternative livelihood the community totally depends on livestock for their daily bread. They also noted that the community is at the same time rigid to change and this is attributed to traditional beliefs and their love for cattle.

4.8.1 Traditional Knowledge Transfer

The respondents revealed that indigenous knowledge has been continuously developed and adapted to the changing conditions. Therefore it is predicated on long time experiences and has been used as a basic for drought mitigation. As it has not been given a lot of attention, has been taken to document, maintain and learn from the Samburu’s indigenous knowledge. The Samburu are nomad-pastoralists and hence are going around with their animals. Thus it was tried to find out which indigenous knowledge helps the Samburu to know which pasture is best and where to go next. FGD (elderly men, Lpayiani) emphasized that;

 

‘grass is the best pasture for their animals, even if there are some differences between the diverse types of animals.

 

The Samburu hold the notion that products from animals that are grass-fed are healthier for humans to eat than meat produced from grain-fed cattle and sheep. Grass-fed cattle can go a long way towards addressing the need for fertilizer to grow grains and since the cows are spread out and not crowded into barns, they do not need constant antibiotic treatment. Likewise, the manure is more manageable when the cows have more space to live. Through their grazing, these animals also manage the countryside in a natural way.

 

According to the Samburu the low lands where it is warmer are good for goats and sheep, whereas the colder highlands are more suitable for cattle herding. Besides the grass the animals are also fed with leaves during dry seasons. All these ways of feeding were used in the past as well as today.

 

A FGD (elderly man, Lpayian) said,

Our knowledge has developed over time and continues to evolve as we face new challenges. We have three broad types of knowledge: animal health knowledge, breeding practices and an understanding of the region that allows us to find water and grazing for our animals.

 

While the pastoralist share common knowledge, some of them have special knowledge, for example men generally treat cows and women care for sheep. Pastoralists’ livelihoods depend on their intimate knowledge of the surrounding ecosystem and on the well-being of their livestock. Pastoral systems are adapted to particular natural, political and economic environments hence the importance of local knowledge in the Samburu community.

Health knowledge (veterinary) allows herders to keep their livestock healthy, breeding practices promote a strong herd consisting of selected livestock population and the environment knowledge allows animals’ survival in these harsh climatic conditions.

 

 

 

According to the FGD (elderly man, Lpayiani);

‘ There are several signs that show the herder where pasture is good for the animals. During the field study it was obvious that the Samburu’s indigenous knowledge is consistent with their animal herds. They explained that the condition of the animals show where pasture is adequate for them.

“For example if the herd is growing fast and fat it is a sign that the grass is sufficient. Moreover the amount of milk that the animals give increases after grazing on good pasture. Additionally the herd is eating slowly, they are healthy and give high quality products in terms of milk and meat.”

 

During the FGD, an elderly man (Lpayiani) argued that:

“If the animals are restless at night and are trying to find their own food it is a sign that pasture is not good and that the animals are not satisfied.”

 

The restlessness of the animal provide the Samburu with the information about the productivity of livestock in terms of milk yield, body condition, and mating frequencies, as well as changes in body weight. Adverse changes in the status of the animal would imply declining rangeland and livestock productivity. The inferences are at two levels. Firstly, herders take their cue from the condition of the forage by focusing on key forage plant species. Secondly, the herders, by making deductions from livestock production performance, make decisions about changing grazing conditions. These assessments are done simultaneously with those of livestock production performance.

Herders’ indigenous knowledge has potential for promoting local participation in mitigating and coping with drought. This may be appreciated considering that herders have evolved in-depth knowledge in terms of systems of landscape classification, using diverse environmental features such as topography, soil and the dominant vegetation. This is the knowledge that herders use to determine the spatial distribution of livestock grazing. The landscapes have identities. The names describe the physical topography, soils and vegetation. Other names describe historical events. The landscape classification criteria may combine cultural events, such as historical settlements and the types of topography. Grazing landscapes used by herders include key resources grazed during the dry season or drought periods.

The study established that Samburu also look at the hair of their animals: if it is relaxed the pasture is good. Finally it was explained by the FGD (elderly men, Lpayiani) that they also know good grazing places due to their long experiences within the area that are passed on through stories to the next generation. In addition if someone discovers new pasture he will tell the others about it so that also an informational system enables the Samburu to know where to find good pasture.

 

All these signs show which pasture is good or not good. Therefore they can be seen as a basic for the decision when to move to another area. Besides these signs the Samburu are also using other indigenous mechanisms that let them know when to go to another rangeland.

 

The data from FGD (elderly men) indicated; when there is no grass anymore or the water has ended they are forced to leave so that their animals get it elsewhere. Also diseases or environmental conditions like drought require a shift to another rangeland.

 

Under the changed land uses, indigenous knowledge has a powerful explanatory capacity to understand how the altered land use patterns induced land degradation. The practical utility of indigenous rangeland management knowledge for assessing impacts of traditional range management on the environmental requires knowledge of indicator types, which are crucial for decision-making by pastoralists and policy-makers.

 

According to the elderly men in Lorroki (Baawa);

 

‘The Samburu also have scouts that survey the area to look for the best pasture conditions available. In addition the already mentioned informational system is working well, so that a herder tells the others when he has been to an area full of rain.’ It was further emphasized by the FGD (elderly men) participants that the Samburu normally know the rain fall patterns and therefore follow the rain with their animals.

 

Pastoralists inhabit zones where the potential for crop cultivation is limited due to low and highly variable rainfall conditions, steep terrain or extreme temperatures. Within this unpredictable, vulnerable and dynamic environment, they have developed successful mechanisms of adaptation to maintain an ecological balance between themselves and the natural environment. Therefore, the application of indigenous knowledge in the drought management strategies help the Samburu community in overcoming the challenges presented by drought. Pastoral communities’ participation in decision making for environmental monitoring is a pillar of sound rangeland management because pastoralists have their own experiences and knowledge, which they have used for generations to manage the rangelands. Secondly, it is assumed that their knowledge is measurable and comparable across communities. The indigenous knowledge among the Samburus can make an important contribution to the development of local policies on rangeland management in Kenya with a view to mitigate drought.

 

4.8.2 Contemporary Knowledge Transfer

The study established that in the contemporary lifestyle in Samburu community, Knowledge transfer on coping with drought is facilitated by rural development projects geared towards livelihood diversification. Particularly, the increasing adoption of tourism has enabled knowledge transfer on ranch management. The community has also benefited from knowledge on camel keeping through interaction by neighboring communities such as Turkana and Somalis. Moreover, the Samburu community is continually acquiring knowledge on crop farming and agri-business.

 

The study findings are in agreement with Ontita (2012) who established that rural development through conservancy presents an avenue for awareness creation on livelihood diversification.  Ontita (2012) established that high level of awareness in the community on how important the landscape and the fauna and flora therein has become the livelihoods of pastoralist community. Scouts create awareness on the importance of wildlife to the community. The scouts also provide information to community members on impending dangers with regard to wildlife in the community and information on migration trends such when large herds of elephants are expected to move through the community. The scouts’ awareness creation efforts have helped create a robust community that has a shared understanding of the value of their landscape and who cooperate to protect and defend it as a source of their livelihoods.

 

The study established that traditional knowledge transfer was mainly from the Samburu elders to the youth.  However, the changing lifestyle among the Samburu has changed knowledge transfer as more people adopt alternative sources of livelihood such as tourism and farming. The introduction of education has also rendered young men more independent in decision making. This has often created conflict between Samburu elders to the youth when making decisions on mobility during drought. The study findings agree with Handley (2012) who established that young men are increasingly making independent decisions regarding herd movement, finding pasture, exploiting water sources, or deciding whether to take herds into conflict areas without the guidance of their fathers The elders are more moderate in their herd migration decisions. The threat of violence fosters the separation of herders and elder community members, resulting in the breakdown of experiential knowledge transmission between the generations and therefore, perhaps increased risk of violence.

 

4.9 Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction (CMDRR)

This section present community managed disaster risk reduction strategies in Samburu. The section presents Hazard Ranking in Samburu

4.9.1 Hazard Ranking in Samburu

Hazard	Score	Rank
Samburu Central
Barsaloi	15	1
Kirimon	9	1
Lorok Lolmogo	15	1
Samburu North
Latakweny	11	1
Lesirikan	8	1
Masikita	11	1
Tuum	9	1
Samburu East
Lkisin		1
Gogoltim	5	1
Ngilai	6	1
Swaari	8	1

Source:  ACTED-Kenya (2014).

Drought in Barsaloi last 8 months, occurs twice every year   is caused by lack of rains and deforestation. Drought in Kirimon is caused mainly by failure of two consecutive rainy seasons (April -June and Sept-Dec) but the most critical is of September to December. Community depends on traditional methods for drought early warning.

Lorok Lolmogo is a semi-arid area and it faces drought as its sole and dominant hazard and disaster. Drought is caused mainly by failure of two consecutive rainy seasons (April -June and Sept-Dec) but the most critical is of September to December. The other contributing factor is over stocking which leads to overgrazing.  Community depends on traditional methods for drought early warning. Its warning signs are high temperatures, lack of clouds, drying of water sources and poor animal health. This drought is said to be slow since it takes three months to hit from the time the warning signs are seen and lasts for three months. This drought occurs three times a year.

Drought is the most hazard that affect people in Latakweny. Drought here is brought about by prolonged lack of rain which causes some regions here to slowly dry out. Its effects bring hunger, diseases and insecurity. It is brought up by lack of rain with the effect being felt because of heat. Before drought hits, rain stops, wild animals start to migrate, wild fruits become available, stars patters are seen and trees start to wither. This annual occurrence strikes three months after the warning and lasts for six months to one year. It brings various impacts in lives of people/communities, either socially, economically and psychologically through increase in conflict over resources, fertile land and water resources, other risk include loss of homeland, increased chance of health risk due to poverty, poor hygiene and communicable diseases.

Drought in Lesirikan is caused mainly by failure of two consecutive rainy seasons (Jan-march and June-Sept). The other contributing factor is over stocking which leads to overgrazing.  Community depends on traditional method for drought early warning. A total of 4000 people are exposed to drought effects when it occurs, which is currently at a frequency of every 3 months. The last drought was experienced in 2011 and its effects included water, food and pasture shortage leading to poor nutrition and partial migration. Generally rainfall in Lesirikan Location follows a fairly erratic pattern varying significantly both in temporal and spatial scale. The Location experiences both short and long rains (Ltumuren and Ngengerua respectively).  Rainfall trends in the past 3 years indicate the short rains falls in the months of November and December while long rains falls in the month of March-May. The driest months are January and February. The Pastoral livelihood zone depends on the short rains as the long rains are unpredictable. Annually Lesirikan Location receives rainfall ranging between 500 mm and 700 mm with temperature ranging between 24 degrees Centigrade and a mean maximum of 33 degree Celsius. Large area of Lesirikan, the soil layer is very thin and support only scanty and sparse vegetation due to poor water retention capacity. The main source of water for both livestock and domestic use in the location is boreholes, water pans/dams, shallow wells and traditional rivers/ Perennial Rivers.

Rainfall in Masikita Location follows a fairly erratic pattern varying significantly both in temporal and spatial scale. The Location experiences both short and long rains (Ltumuren and Ngengerua respectively).  Rainfall trends indicate the short rains falls in the months of November and December while long rains falls in the month of March-May. The driest months are January and February. The Pastoral livelihood zone depends on the short rains as the long rains are unpredictable. Annually Masikita Location receives rainfall ranging between 500 mm and 700 mm with temperature ranging between 24 degree Centigrade and a mean maximum of 33 degree Celsius. Large area of Masikita, the soil layer is very thin and support only scanty and sparse vegetation due to poor water retention capacity. The main source of water for both livestock and domestic use in the location is boreholes, water pans/dams, shallow wells and traditional rivers/ Perennial Rivers.

Drought in Tuum is caused by prolonged lack of rain which causes some region around the place to slowly dry out. Its effects bring hunger, diseases and insecurity. This forces the herder to leave their homes in search of water and food for their animals. In most cases this means vulnerable women, children and elderly are left behind to fend for themselves. This annual occurrence strikes three months after the warning and last for six months to one year. It causes serious damages to human beings and also livestock. It involves water shortage, lower water flows, reduce dilution of pollutants and increase contamination of the remaining water source, stream flow reduction and depletion of ground water and soils moisture. The lack of rain in Tuum location is making it almost impossible for the local people to live on their land. It leads to poverty and low income level conflict and high dependency. Drought has forced herders to leave their homes in search of water and food for their animals. In most cases this means vulnerable Women, Children and the Elderly are left behind to fend for themselves in the villages. Problem also arise when entire families pull up stake with so many people leaving their traditional hunting and feeding grounds create conflict as pastoralists ventures into land used for farming activities.

 

Drought is the major challenge in Lkisin and a total population of 10,000 people is exposed to the hazard. Drought is always experienced yearly. This is mainly caused by lack of seasonal rains which leads to water scarcity and lack of pastures. This then leads to migration of both people and livestock’s. This migration leads to high school dropouts since many children accompany livestock in search pastures. The rapidity of this drought is high and its warning signs include poor animal health, certain yellow flies and the two stars i.e. lokirai and lakira lesiran.

Drought in Gogoltim is caused mainly by failure of rains in two consecutive seasons (Jan-march and June to October),but the most critical one is on 2nd phase, the other contributing factor is overgrazing, here the community depends on traditional methods of drought warning signs and signals-  Shading of leaves by a tree known  as Loishimi FGD Disappearance of clouds, drying of water pads during these period a total population of 1600 is exposed to drought effects when it occurs is currently at the frequency of every three years, which was lastly experienced in 2009,and its effects include: lack of water and pastures, loss of lives of people, introduction of local root tubers to feed the animals which promoted  breed.

Drought is caused mainly by failure of two consecutive rainy seasons (Jan-March and June-Oct) but the most critical is the latter one. The other contributing factor is over stocking which leads to overgrazing.  Community depends on traditional methods for drought early warning. A total of 5500 people are exposed to drought effects when it occurs, which is currently at a frequency of every 2 yrs. The last drought was experienced in 2009 and its effects included water, food and pasture shortage leading to poor nutrition and partial migration.

Drought in Swaari is caused mainly by failure of two consecutive rainy seasons (Jan-March and June-October). The other contributing factor is over stocking which leads to overgrazing.  Community depends on traditional methods for drought early warning. A total of 4000 people are exposed to drought effects when it occurs, which is currently at a frequency of every 2 yrs. The last drought was experienced in 2009 and its effects included water, food and pasture shortage leading to poor nutrition and partial migration.

In Pastoral livelihood zone, pasture condition is poor which is normal at this time of the year mainly attributed to the usual dry spell experienced during the period. In areas such as Marti, Lbukoi and Suyan in Samburu North Sub County, pasture is available but accessibility is hindered by insecurity and conflicts. In the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone, condition is good to fair, which is normal at this time of the year. Browse situation in the Pastoral livelihood zone is fair which is normal at this time of the year and is projected to last up to end of August as the dry spell progresses. In the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone, browse situation is good, which is normal at this time of the year and both the pasture and browse are expected to improve further as a result of rainfall currently being received in most parts.

4.9.2 Community Strategy in Response to Drought Hazards

Community responds to drought through Hazard mitigation measures such as storing of water for future use, fencing of water points, collection and storing of wild fruits for later use, controlling grazing areas, Formation of self-help groups, Destocking/ restocking of livestock. The community also get assistance from humanitarian agencies such as ACTED through funds for starting income generating activities (IGAs).

 

ACTED emphasis a community based approach to address Disaster Risk Management (DRM), whereby community structures are established and strengthened and ultimately able to act to prepare for respond to and recover from disaster. The main objectives is to provide community with the capacity and resources to operationalized community disaster management plans and improve management of /access to shared resources. This includes: Participatory Disaster Risk Analysis/Assessment (PDRA), Establishing of Community Disaster Management Committee (CDMCs), Developing Disaster Management Plan (CDMP) and Contingency Plan (CP).

 

ACTED ultimate objective of the drought response system is to promote early mitigation efforts that reduce the time that elapses from the point when warning of drought stress is given and the point when response starts. Drought Mitigation activities will take a livelihood perspective and be specifically designed to support local economies and promote linkages with long-term development strategies. This is expected to reduce considerably the losses of assets by households during drought crises and contribute to enhance resilience.

 

ACTED put much emphasis in  disaster risk management as it  helps to protect lives and livelihood and safeguards growth in key social economic sectors. ACTED works within the DRM cycle which includes all activities, programs and measures which can be taken up before, during and after a disaster – whether natural or man-made – with the purpose to avoid it, reduce its impact or recover from its losses.

ACTED does not consider a linear continuum approach to DRM and building disaster resilience but rather a cyclical contiguum approach, which forms part of a holistic cycle, with different interventions combining response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness while Linking Relief, Rehabilitation and Development (LRRD). Better development can reduce the need for emergency relief; better relief can contribute to development; and better rehabilitation can ease the transition between the two.

ACTED ensures consistent application of a multi-hazard approach. Indeed many communities are vulnerable due to their exposure to multiple hazards which are likely to increase as a result of climate change. Multi-hazard approach is vital, towards ensuring a dynamic view of vulnerabilities which takes into account all possible risk faced by communities in a certain geographical zones.

The multi-hazard approach identifies and compare risks management strategies and preparedness and mitigation measures for different types of hazards. These may be concurrent or require specific and tailored approaches by taking into consideration each hazard, disaster risk reduction planning and implementation becomes more robust and meaningful. Closely linked to multi-hazards approach is also conflict-sensitivity. Many of these insecure contexts are in areas suffering from a self-reinforcing spiral where conflict creates more vulnerability to disaster creates further conflicts.

4.9.3 Community strategy specific needs identification

With the strategies identified, the community then engage themselves in facilitation from ACTED in needs identification as follows: preservation of pasture, destocking, increasing water sources, advocate for community feeding program, increase knowledge on food production(mixed farming), knowledge on animal treatments, and increase education facilities and personnel.

The land in Samburu County is mainly communal but the aspired situation is to have all members of the community agree on grazing style in terms of rotational grazing. The community is encouraged to preserve pasture by using modern ways of pasture preservation and grazing rules.

One of the community strategy in response to drought is destocking. The rich households have an average herd 15 to 20 cattle and other livestock’s not exceeding 50 in number. In destocking every member of a household should be prepared on warning signs and signals of drought to ensure the right way of livestock stock control. Some animals should be sold and money saved or used in other businesses. The requirement include good market for selling animals during destocking period and capacity building on the right drought resistant breeds and also in terms of productivity.

 

ACTED embraces community participation and involvement in the entire PDRA processes. To shift from a reactive approach (Relief and response; dependency) to hazard events, to one of being proactive in reducing our disaster risks (DRR; self-reliance and resilience), ACTED and the County government build on the fact that disasters (as a consequence of natural and/or social hazards) are an act of man and not an act of God. ACTED in collaboration with Ministry of water and other well-wishers encourage increment of water sources through rehabilitation of shallow well, disilting of small water pans around Barsaloi. Kirimion and Loosuk centers are the areas with enough water and all other villages depend on the area. Therefore such other villages need hand pumps, rehabilitation of sand dams and disilting of small water pans.

Households in Samburu depends others for survival and also charcoal burning or selling firewood. Every household is vulnerable to drought hence need some intervention to promote their health status in terms of cash for work or food for work. ACTED advocate for community feeding program. Cash for work is very important for their sustainability and also food for work during the drought period.

According to ACTED, all community members Barsaloi are pastoralists. Every household lacks knowledge on crop production hence they rely on animals. ACTED advocate for the use of modern farming methods and use of drought resistant crops. The community also lacks knowledge on the right drugs to a certain diseases hence the need for the formation and capacity building of community animal health specialists. The target by ACTED is to ensure that At least 10 people from Barsaloi location have known the right dose for the sick animal and the signs and symptoms of a disease.

Another community strategy in response to drought is the increase of micro-project/finance activities IGAs. Very few individuals in Samburu community engage in small scale business. The target by ACTED is that at least a third of Barsaloi and Loosuk community engages in business activity by borrowing capital from financial institutions.

The measures put in place to manage drought in Ngilai include: provision of funds to the most vulnerable people to buy drought resistant animals, creation of employment-cash for work, improving animal health, construction of slabs along the main earth road to improve accessibility during rainy season and provision of more water sources like water pans and boreholes.

 

In order to mitigate the impact of drought in the community through increased hygiene awareness, improved natural resource management and livelihood diversification, ACTED conduct training on water resource management and hygiene at community level. The result is reduce communicable disease, better water, resources utilization, effective water user committees. ACTED conduct training on kitchen gardening, poultry rearing and nutrition for women in order to improved household diet and business skills trainings for youth, women, elderly and people with special needs in order to increase income from IGAs. Figure 4.15 shows a poultry project by women in Samburu East.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pastoralists are increasingly faced with challenges of maintaining a sustainable livestock herd due to shrinking grazing land that has been aggravated by recent land subdivision coupled with changing land use system and increasing human population. These factors have rendered the pastoral coping strategies ineffective especially to withstand the effects of drought, disease epidemics as well as other disasters. These factors have forced pastoral communities in Samburu to find other ways of surviving and poultry farming is one of the strategies to diversify the sources of their livelihood and mitigate the effects of drought. Poultry do not require a lot of water consumption as compared to cattle. Indigenous chicken farming is an important source of income and cheap source of protein for the Samburu community. Poultry farming reduce land degradation through reduction of cattle and small stock needed to subsist on by pastoralists. Moreover, poultry farming in Samburu generate income in the households and provide economic empowerment of the Samburu women and youth.

 

ACTED enhances survivability by improving household food production and income through increased agricultural production and timely livestock off take. This has led to expansion of expansion of farm sizes from 20 to 40 acres by 400HHs in Lorok Lolmogo. The organization conduct community barazas on benefits of destocking and timely livestock off-take and management of livestock sale income targeting 600 livestock owners. ACTED enhances community readiness in mitigating the impact of drought and enhances community participation in monitoring evaluation and review of DRR activities.

 

ACTED effort to build resilience aims to contribute to a sustainable reduction in vulnerability through: increased adaptive capacity of local population governments and other actors, improved ability to identify address and reduce risk and improved social and economic condition of vulnerable population.

 

4.9.4 Resilience Building through Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Process

ACTED has adopted the following steps to resilience building through disaster risk reduction Process.

 

Resilient Community “Excellent”

Community with high potential to become resilient “BEST”

Community at the beginning of the process to become resilient “GOOD“

 

Figure 4.12 Steps to Resilience Building through Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Process: Adopted from Cordaid.

 

Resilient Community: A drought resilient community is fully aware of their disaster risks, effectively and independently manages , monitors and evaluates CMDRR through a community organization, has an effective CMDRR organization, coordinating various sub-committees, mobilizes its own resources for CMDRR-DRR Trust Fund, has the skills to accesses additional external resources for CMDRR, decides fully its own development agenda, has full insight in the external environment and links effectively with external stakeholder and fully includes and addresses the needs of the most at risk in CMDRR.

A drought resilient community also ensure equal participation of both men and women in CMDRR decision making and high literacy rate, documents and learns from its CMDRR experiences, effectively lobbies and advocates for its entitlements and rights, claims its rights from its entitlements and rights, has established full food security and manages its resources, including but not limited to natural resources, in a sustainable way, has established a strong position in the value chains it is part of and has divers livelihood options.

 

Community with high potential to become resilient: A community with high potential to become resilient, understands CMDRR and is supported in managing CMDRR, Has various organizations & committees and they are coordinated, partially mobilizes its own resources for CMDRR, has limited skills to accesses additional external resources for CMDRR, its development agenda is partially guided by external actors, has some insight in the external environment and has some skills to establish effective links with external stakeholders, has defined and to some extend includes and addresses the needs of the most at risk in DRR.

A community with high potential to become resilient  also has unequal participation of women in DRR decision making, medium literacy rate, depends on external support to document and learn from its CMDRR experiences, has some lobby & advocacy skills, Knows its entitlements & rights, Has established partial food security, partially manages its resources, including but not limited to natural resources, in a sustainable way, has not fully established a strong position in the value chains it is part of and has limited divers livelihood options.

 

Community at the beginning of the process to become resilient: Community at the beginning of the process to become resilient has accepted DRR as concept, has various organizations & committees but not coordinated, does not mobilize its own resources for DRR, does not apply skills to accesses additional external resources for CMDRR, Its development agenda is initiated externally, has no insight in the external environment and has limited skills to establish effective links with the external stakeholders, has defined and identified the most at risk in DRR but does not yet address their needs in DRR CMDRR decision making not engendered, low literacy rate and no documentation and learning from CMDRR experiences yet.

 

Community at the beginning of the process to become resilient also has no lobby and advocacy skills, is not fully aware of its entitlements and rights, depends to a large extend on external support, manages its resources, including but not limited to natural resources, in an unsustainable way, has a relative weak position in the value chains it is part of and have not explored alternative

 

 

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

 

5.1 Introduction

This chapter presents summary of the study, conclusions and recommendations.  The study sought to answer four research questions: What are the community based drought coping mechanisms in Samburu County? What are the community based drought preparedness and mitigation strategies in Samburu County? How community does based drought Early Warning System compare with other systems in Samburu County? How has indigenous knowledge been used to inform drought management strategies in Samburu County?

 

5.2 Summary of the Study Findings

The first objective of the study was to establish the community based drought coping mechanisms in Samburu County. The coping mechanisms used by Samburu community include: herd mobility, herd diversification and livelihood diversification. Herd mobility involve the movement of livestock alone while the rest of the community stayed behind or the movement of the entire community together with livestock. Mobility not only allows for the use of productive tracts of land and water, but it also enables previously – inhabited land to rest and recover after utilization, which is an essential component of successful rangelands management. Herd diversification involves keeping animals such as donkey and camel in addition to cattle, goats and sheep. Herd diversification has enabled Samburu community to generate a wider variety of livestock products, harvest more of the available forage, use different environmental niches, and generate livestock output in different seasons. Samburu community has diversified its livelihood through adoption of alternative sources of food and income such as agribusiness, mining and tourism. Other coping mechanisms used by Samburu community include: food consumption adjustment in which the community limits consumption of animal produce such as milk and blood, food preservation, social networks and migration of livestock to areas with pasture.

The second objective of the study was to examine community based drought preparedness and mitigation strategies in Samburu County. The study established that drought mitigation in Samburu County involves interventions and practices applied by government and other supporting institutions, including NGOs and private sector at different times of the drought cycle to help affected communities to cope. Government and supporting institutions are involved in promotion of water harvesting and storage, food security and nutrition, livestock production, animal health and crops production. The study established that emergency relief is one of the major short-term drought mitigation strategies in Samburu County.  The respondents indicated that the main types of emergency interventions provided include: food relief, disease control and treatment, animal feed and supplements, water for human and livestock. Other community based preparedness strategies include: farming drought resistant crops, progressive and selective destocking to reduce livestock numbers and hence grazing pressure, sinking of boreholes, progressive and selective reduction of grazing pressure on pastures, herd diversification and livelihood diversification.

The third objective of the study was to compare community based drought early warning system with other systems in Samburu County. The study established that majority (65.3%) of the respondents use indigenous early warning systems on impending drought. The indigenous early warning systems include forecasting by traditional astronomers from flowering plants, the position of the stars and from animal behavior. The look at the stars and the moon can be a different way of predicting the advance of a dry season. The Samburu used the belly of a freshly- slaughtered goat particularly the position of the intestine or the colour of the organs is read to predict the future. Another way to predict a drought was the movement of butterflies or insects in general and the availability of water is also a warning indicator for drought. The non-indigenous early warning systems comprise of an integrated drought information system with specific indicators monitored to foretell impending drought.

The study established that non-indigenous early warning systems are superior due to technological advancement and the training of professionals involved in it. The elements of indigenous early warning systems are critical but implementation framework for the two types of early warning systems has been difficult. However, majority of the respondents stated that information from non-indigenous community based drought early warning system has not been helpful to the community. The non-indigenous early warning systems require expertise which is not there among the community members.  There is lack of awareness on importance of such information and early warning systems. The respondents cited lack of information, lack of access to available information and high illiteracy levels as impediment to community based drought early warning system.

The fourth objective of the study was to determine use of indigenous knowledge to inform drought management strategies in Samburu County. The study established that traditional knowledge transfer was mainly from the Samburu elders to the youth.  However, the changing lifestyle among the Samburu has changed knowledge transfer as more people adopt alternative sources of livelihood such as tourism and farming. Indigenous knowledge has been continuously developed and adapted to the changing conditions. The study established that Samburu Community manage drought through linking traditional (indigenous) and modern systems such as proper management of natural resources such as land through capacity building with the help of central government, county government and Non-Governmental Organizations. The study established that in the contemporary lifestyle in Samburu community, Knowledge transfer on coping with drought is facilitated by rural development projects geared towards livelihood diversification.

The study established various community managed disaster risk reduction approaches to drought in Samburu County. CMDRR in Samburu County is a multi-sectoral approach that involve various stakeholders that include the community, non-governmental organizations and government agencies such as County government, Ministry of Water and Ministry of Agriculture. The study established that CMDRR in Samburu County is mainly championed by non-governmental agencies such as ACTED, World Vision,CORDAID, CARITAS,AMREF and The Samburu Project. CMDRR starts with hazard ranking in which drought was identified as number one hazard in  Barsaloi, Kirimion and Lorok Lolmogo in Samburu Central; Latakweny, Lesirikan, Masikita and Tuum in  Samburu North; Lkisin, Gogoltim, Ngilai and Swaari in Samburu East.

After hazard ranking the nongovernmental organizations such as ACTED, in collaboration with government and other agencies, come up with community strategy in response to drought hazards.  The study established that ACTED involves the community is establishment and strengthening of community structures that enable the community to respond to and recover from disaster.  The Samburu, community responds to drought through hazard mitigation measures such as storing of water for future use, fencing of water points, collection and storing of wild fruits for later use, controlling grazing areas, formation of self-help groups, destocking/ restocking of livestock and income generating activities.

Upon identification of strategies in response to drought hazards, the community then engage themselves in needs identification for various activities such as preservation of pasture, destocking, increasing water sources, community feeding program, increase in knowledge on food production and animal treatments and increase in education facilities and personnel. ACTED conduct training on water resource management and hygiene at community level in order to mitigate the impact of drought in the community through increased hygiene awareness and livelihood diversification.  CMDRR in Samburu County also involve continuous monitoring of various community projects and strategies with a view to establish whether specific section of the community is resilient to drought , has high potential to become resilient or is at the beginning of the process to become resilient to drought .

5.3 Conclusions

According to Hyogo Framework for Action, communities are supposed to make disaster risk reduction a priority, know the risks and take action, build awareness and understanding, reduce underlying risk factors, and be prepared and ready to act. In Samburu this is not the case. Community based drought coping mechanisms in Samburu County are in place but have only been moderately effective. These coping mechanisms are not elaborate and this has not helped the drought situation in Samburu.

Community based drought preparedness and mitigation strategies in Samburu County just like coping mechanisms are haphazard with only moderate effect. Preparedness and mitigation strategies do not seem to be a priority of Samburu community as Samburu people have not taken serious actions, have not built awareness and understanding about drought, have not reduced underlying risk factors, and are not prepared and ready to act.  Nevertheless, various stakeholders non-governmental organizations such as ACTED, World Vision and The Samburu Project have come up with community managed disaster risk reduction approaches to enhance drought preparedness and mitigation in Samburu County.

Community based drought Early Warning System is a challenge in Samburu largely due to lack of information, infrastructure and lack of awareness. This has raised Samburu people’s vulnerability to drought. Due to lack of alternative livelihood the community totally depends on livestock for their daily bread. At the same time the community is rigid to change and this is attributed to traditional beliefs and their love for cattle. This can be addressed through creating awareness and understanding about drought as well as tackling the underlying risk factors such as traditional beliefs and community attitude towards change in lifestyle.

Indigenous knowledge informing drought management strategies in Samburu County is scarce. This could be attributed to lack of indigenous knowledge management where information is passed through generations. The heavy reliance on relief food and meteorological information shows there is a problem with the indigenous knowledge. This can also be attributed to climate change that has seen semi-arid areas become arid.

Policies that support biodiversity investments will more accurately reflect the diverse livelihood portfolios of the Samburu region’s pastoralists. This will be instrumental to preventing over-reliance on pastoralism and thereby will assist pastoralists to manage risk such persistent drought and to construct more resilient livelihoods. Policy support for a wider range of livelihood options will also help overcome the reliance on a narrow range of resources and thereby mitigate over-exploitation of those resources. Depending on a location’s position along the aridity, population density or market access gradient, supporting ‘pastoralism and biodiversity’ as a package, necessitates different investment and development actions and policy support.

If the government’s agenda is to support the complementarities between pastoralism and biodiversity, there are a number of key investment and policy priorities. Ecologically and economically sustainable livestock production in the drylands such as Samburu County requires public investment in transport and market infrastructure, credit facilities, health and education adapted to mobility in combination with policies supporting environmental protection. Drylands are, however, not homogeneous areas but contain diverse bio-physical and socio-economic realities. Land use planning and livelihood strategies, investments and policies need be matched to this diversity. Drylands are also highly complex systems operating at a different scale. Trade-offs at landscape need to be carefully examined when designing development strategies.

5.4 Recommendations of the Study

This study recommends that community leaders in Samburu should use Hyogo Framework for Action to make drought reduction a priority in their community. This can be achieved through making the community members know the risks that come with drought and take action, building awareness and understanding about drought and reducing the underlying risk factors. This will make the community become prepared and ready to act whenever they are vulnerable to drought.

The County government of Samburu should partner with community leaders in implementing Hyogo Framework for Action at the community level. This can be done through reviving use of indigenous knowledge to work hand in hand with modern knowledge in preparation for and mitigating effects of drought.

The Samburu community should be ready to change with the changes in climate for a sustainable livelihood. Although this has been observed where some community members have resulted to agro-pastoralism and conservation, more dedicated efforts towards alternative livelihoods are needed.

The central government should support Samburu community with meteorological information, install and build infrastructure as well as making laws that will support Samburu people’s efforts in achieving alternative sustainable livelihood. Central government should also invest in education and awareness campaigns on drought in Samburu County.

Community based organizations have been in the frontline in making a change in Samburu but they still need to do more to ensure that natural resources are well coordinated. Community based organizations should not ignore traditional methods of coping, preparedness, mitigating drought and early warning systems. They should promote them and work to improve them rather than discarding them altogether.

 

This study recommends that future studies should investigate the integration of indigenous knowledge in drought risk reduction. Further studies should focus on the impact of community based organizations in drought risk reduction in Samburu County. In addition, future scholars may use the findings of this study as a basis to establish determinants of implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action in drought risk reduction. Further studies should examine the measures that the Samburu community has taken to tackle climate change.

The study recommends that the government and all stakeholders involved in disaster mitigation processed in Sambury County should come up with guidelines on the best agricultural practices that mitigate drought. The guideline should include specific strategies and approaches identified by the community particularly in areas such as management of stock size and crop production. All community members should be sensitized on the guideline to ensure effective implementation and achievement of the set goals.

The study recommends that more funds should be directed towards construction of sustainable water points. The community should be fully involved in the design and implementation phases to ensure capacity building for maintenance and long term sustainability of the water points. Preservation of water points should be accompanied by proper use of pasture to avoid imbalance between water supply and demand due to overstocking and overgrazing which escalates drought.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Nonito, Y. & Alice, N. (2011). Drought Preparedness and Response as if Development Matters: Case Studies from Kenya. Journal of Rural and Community Development, 6, (2) 15-35

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Nyariki, D.M. (2008). Price response of herd off-take under market liberalisation in a developing cattle sector: Panel analysis applied to Kenya’s ranching, Environment and Development Economics, (in press).

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Samburu County Drought Contingency Plan (2014)

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APPENDIX I: QUESTIONNAIRE

Introduction

This questionnaire seeks information on drought disaster risk reduction strategies used in Samburu County. The information sought will exclusively be used for academic purposes.

General Information

1. Kindly indicate the name of this area

Baragoi                        [  ]

Maralal                        [  ]

Lodo Kejek                 [  ]

Wamba                        [  ]

Waso                           [  ]

2. Kindly indicate your gender.

Male                            [  ]                    Female                         [  ]

3. What is your age bracket?

20 years and below                             [  ]

21-30 years                                          [  ]

31-40 years                                          [  ]

41-50 years                                          [  ]

51 years and above                             [  ]

4. How long have you settled in this area?

5 years and below                               [  ]

6-10 years                                            [  ]

11-15 years                                          [  ]

16-20 years                                          [  ]

Above 20 years                                   [  ]

I was born here                                   [  ]

5. What is your understanding of drought?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Coping Strategies

6. Are there coping mechanisms that Samburu people have adapted to deal with drought?

Yes                  [  ]                                No                   [  ]

7. As a community in Samburu, what are the drought coping strategies have you adopted?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

8. Have these strategies been effective in managing drought?

Yes                  [  ]                                No                   [  ]

9. Which of the following drought coping strategies have been used in Samburu?

Coping Mechanisms
Household food consumption adjustments
Liquidate productive asset
Deplete food & cash savings
Borrow credit
Rely on charity
Use social network
Earn more wage income
Liquidate other assets
Publicly sponsored relief
Household expenditure adjustments
Migrate families out of pastoralist area
Do nothing

10. To what extent are the coping strategies adopted by Samburu community been effective?

Not at all                                 [  ]

Little extent                            [  ]

Moderate extent                      [  ]

Great extent                            [  ]

Very great extent                    [  ]

Preparedness Strategies

11. Are there any preparations by Samburu community on how to deal with drought?

Yes                  [  ]                                No                   [  ]

12. What are the community based preparedness strategies that have been adopted by Samburu people in anticipation of drought?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

 

 

13. Which of the following preparedness strategies are used in Samburu?

Preparedness Strategies
Progressive and/or selective destocking. This may include reducing total stock numbers or selectively culling certain categories of stock
Contingency plans either to reduce livestock numbers and hence grazing pressure
Progressive and/or selective reduction of grazing pressure on pastures
Herd diversification
Livelihood diversification

14. To what extent are these preparedness strategies successful in combating drought?

Not at all                                 [  ]

Little extent                            [  ]

Moderate extent                      [  ]

Great extent                            [  ]

Very great extent                    [  ]

Mitigation Strategies

15. Are there strategies directed towards easing the effects of drought by Samburu Community?

Yes                  [  ]                                No                   [  ]

16. What measures have the Samburu Community put in place to ease effects of drought?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

 

 

17. To what extent have the mitigation strategies been helpful in easing severity of drought?

Not at all                                 [  ]

Little extent                            [  ]

Moderate extent                      [  ]

Great extent                            [  ]

Very great extent                    [  ]

 

Early Warning Systems

18. Is there information available to alert or warn Samburu people of an impending drought?

Yes                  [  ]                                No                   [  ]

19. If yes above, has this information been helpful to the community?

Yes                  [  ]                                No                   [  ]

20. If no, why?

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

21. To what extent has information available to alert or warn Samburu people been helpful?

Not at all                                 [  ]

Little extent                            [  ]

Moderate extent                      [  ]

Great extent                            [  ]

Very great extent                    [  ]

22. Does Samburu Community use indigenous early warning systems?

Yes                              [  ]        No                   [  ]

23. Which are the indigenous Early warning Systems used by Samburu Community?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

24. Does Samburu Community use non-indigenous early warning systems?

Yes                              [  ]        No                   [  ]

25. Which are the non-indigenous Early warning Systems used by Samburu Community?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

26. How would you compare indigenous and non-indigenous early warning systems?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Drought Risk

27. Has Samburu community used indigenous knowledge in drought management strategies?

Yes                  [  ]                    No                   [  ]

28. How would you rate the level of vulnerability of Samburu people to drought?

Very high                                [  ]

High                                        [  ]

Moderate                                 [  ]

Low                                         [  ]

Very low                                 [  ]

29. Explain your answer above

 

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

30. How would you rate the level of resilience of Samburu people to drought?

Very low                                 [  ]

Low                                         [  ]

Moderate                                 [  ]

High                                        [  ]

Very high                                [  ]

31. Explain your answer above

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

APPENDIX II: FOCUSED GROUP DISCUSSION GUIDE

I am conducting interviews with relevant authorities and NGOs in the area in order to understand more about your coping strategies with regards to drought and institutions that provide support in this County. Information collected from interviews will be confidential and no names of the interviewees will be published or shared. Officials conducting information will be kept confidential.

 

Date of Interview:

day……/month……./2014

Name of Respondent: (Optional) __________________________________________________

1. What is your understanding of drought?

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2. Give an account of the drought disaster situation in Samburu County for the last 5 years

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

3. What in your view are the probable causes and impact of drought?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

4. Suggest on how best drought can be managed?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

5. What is the state of the rivers and water bodies in the region?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

6. What strategies have been adopted by the community to reduce impact of drought?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

7. What are the advantages of community based strategies of drought management?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

8. What are the disadvantages of community based strategies of drought management?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

9. Do you collaborate with any institution/department in finding a solution? If so in what ways and how effective is the collaboration?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

10. Does drought disaster have any relationship with poverty levels in the region and how in your view are they linked?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

11. Do stakeholders in disaster management adopt effective planning and implementation of plans?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

12. What would form a sustainable management plan for the recurrent of drought disaster?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

13. What is the community based preparedness, early warning systems, mitigation and coping strategies used in Samburu?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

14. How has indigenous knowledge been used to inform drought management strategies?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

15. How do the community based early warning systems compare with modern early warning systems used in Samburu?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

16. What challenges do you face in drought management in Samburu?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

17. What are your other suggestions concerning drought management strategies in Samburu?

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Thank you

APPENDIX III: KEY INFORMANT GUIDE

I am conducting interviews with relevant authorities and NGOs in the area in order to understand more about your coping strategies with regards to drought and institutions that provide support in this County. Information collected from interviews will be confidential and no names of the interviewees will be published or shared. Officials conducting information will be kept confidential.

 

Date of Interview:

day……/month……./2014

Name of Respondent: (Optional) __________________________________________________

Sex of respondent (a) Male [ ] (b) Female [ ]

Official position ____________________________________________________

1. What is your understanding of drought?

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. Give an account of the drought disaster situation in Samburu County for the last 5 years

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. What in your view are the probable causes and impact  of drought?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. What is the state of the rivers and water bodies in the region?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. What strategies have been adopted by the community to reduce impact of drought?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. Do you collaborate with any institution/department in finding a solution? If so in what ways and how effective is the collaboration?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. Does drought disaster have any relationship with poverty levels in the region and how in your view are they linked?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. Do stakeholders in disaster management adopt effective planning and implementation of plans?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. What would form a sustainable management plan for the recurrent drought disaster?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

1. What are the community based preparedness, early warning systems, mitigation and coping strategies used in Samburu?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. How has indigenous knowledge been used to inform drought management strategies?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. How do the community based early warning systems compare with modern early warning systems used in Samburu?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. What challenges do you face in drought management in Samburu?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

1. What are your other suggestions concerning drought management strategies in Samburu?

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Thank you

 

 

Integrated Case Chapter 9

 

Stock Valuation Robert Balik and Carol Kiefer are senior vice presidents of the Mutual of Chicago Insurance Company. They are co-directors of the company’s pension fund management division, with Balik having responsibility for fixed-income securities (primarily bonds) and Kiefer being responsible for equity investments. A major new client, the California League of Cities, has requested that Mutual of Chicago present an investment seminar to mayors of the represented cities; and Balik and Kiefer, who will make the actual presentation, have asked you to help them.

To illustrate the common stock valuation process, Balik and Kiefer have asked you to analyze the Bon Temps Company, and employment agency that supplies word processor operators and computer programmers to business with temporarily heavy workloads. You are to answer the following questions.

 

1. Describe briefly the legal rights and privileges of common stock holders.
2. Write a formula that can b e used to value any stock, regardless of its dividend pattern.
3. What is the constant growth stock? How are constant growth stocks valued?
4. What are the implications if a company forecasts a constant g that exceeds its rs? Will many stocks have expected g> rs in the short run (that is, for the next few years)? In the long run (that is, forever)?
5. Assume that Bon Temps has a beta coefficient of 1.2, that the risk-free rate (the yield on T-

bonds) is 7%, and that the required rate of return on the market is 12%. What is Bon Temp’s

required rate of return?

1. Assume that Bond Temps is a constant growth company whose last dividend (D0, which was

paid yesterday) was $2.00 and whose dividend is expected to grow indefinitely at a 6% rate.

1. What is the firm’s expected dividend stream over the next 3 years?
2. What is the current stock price?
3. What is the stock’s expected value 1 year from now?
4. What are the expected dividend yield, capital gains yield, and total return during the first year?
5. Now assume that the stock is currently selling at $30.29. What is its expected rate of return?
6. What would the stock price be if its dividends were expected to have zero growth?
7. Now assume that Bon Temps is expected to experience non-constant growth of 30% for the next

3 years, then return to its long-run constant growth rate of 6%. What is the stock’s value under

these conditions? What are its expected dividend and capital gains yields in year 1? Year 4?

1. Suppose Bon Temps is expected to experience zero growth during the first 3 years and then

resume its steady-state growth of 6% in the fourth year. What would be its value then? What

would be its expected dividend and capital gains yields in Year 1? In year 4?

1. Finally, assume that Bon Temp’s earnings and dividends are expected to decline at a constant

rate of 6% per year, that is, g= -6%. Why would anyone be willing to buy suck a stock and at

what price should it sell? What would be its dividend and capital gains yields in each year?

1. Suppose Bon Temps embarked on an aggressive expansion that requires additional capital.

Management decided to finance the expansion by borrowing $40 million and halting dividend

payments to increase retained earnings. Its WACC is now 10%, and the projected fresh cash

flows for the next 3 years are -$5 million, $10 million, and $20 million. After Year 3, free cash

flow is projected to grow at a constant 6%. What is Bon Temp’s total value? If it has 10 million

shares of stock and $40 million of debt and preferred stock combined, what is the price per

share?

5. Suppose Bon Temps decided to issue preferred stock that would pay annual dividend of $5.00

and that the issue prices was $50.00 per share. What would be the stock’s expected return?

Would the expected rate of return be the same if the preferred was a perpetual issue or if it had a

20-year maturity?

 

With farmers still representing a significant segment of American society, why did government officials—Democrats and Republicans alike—prove unwilling to help find solutions to farmers’ problems?
Upon reflection, did the Populist Party make a wise decision in choosing to support the Democratic Party’s candidate in the 1896 presidential election? Why or why not? Despite its relative weakness during this period, the federal government made several efforts to provide a measure of relief for struggling Americans. What were these initiatives? In what ways were they more or less successful?